Polls, people, and panic

When the DesMoines Register poll for Iowa done by Ann Seltzer, considered the Gold Standard not just for that state but among state pollsters, was released last night, Twitter went on fire.  In 2016 Seltzer had released a late Iowa poll that showed Trump up by 9, a margin that he exceeded by several points…

State Polls: Biden Tied in GA, MI +13%, TX +3%, NC +4%, FL +2%

Gravis Marketing leads off with a 13 point lead for Joe Biden in Michigan. That would be a fantastic number if it is accurate.  It would mean Democrats would likely roll up good numbers in Minnesota and Wisconsin as well. Even Ohio, which was 8% more Republican than Michigan in 2016, would be a likely win. This…

Private Polls Are Showing Big Swings to Democrats in the Suburbs

It’s becoming the story of the election that the suburban areas, especially those with many well-educated people are shifting strongly toward Joe Biden and Democratic candidates. According to Dave Wasserman of Cook Reports, most congressional districts are shifting by about 8 points, but some suburban districts are shifting more. It seems Andrea Mitchell of NBC…

Morning Consult Has Mostly Great State Polls

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… Morning Consult is waking us up this morning  with a number of great state polls, with the Arizona poll being about the only one that’s not great. The polls were taken October 11-20 of likely voters. This pollster is rated B/C by 538. State Presidential Polls 10/22 from Morning Consult State Biden Trump Trump Margin Trump…

Fox News Polls: Biden MI +12%, PA +5%, WI 5%, OH -3%

In a day full of polls, Fox News adds to the stack of largely favorable surveys for Joe Biden. These polls of likely voters were taken October 17-20; 538 rates Fox News Poll as A-. Presidential Polls published 10/21 (after 4 p.m.) ST. Pollster/Rating Biden Trump Others Trump 16 MI Fox News A- Data Prog. 52%…

State Polls: Biden Tied in TX, +8 PA, +4 FL, +5 IA, +9 NV, +10 MN

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… It’s nearly all plus signs for Joe Biden in today’s state polls. The forecast from 538 has Biden with a 87% of winning and a 10% national lead (some of today’s national polls are quite Republican). Being tied at 47% in Texas is a great achievement for the Biden campaign. poll.qu.edu/… Among those who will vote…

Polls Showed Nearly a Sea of Blue Before October Surprise

We don’t know how Trump’s infection by Covid-19 will affect the presidential race which has remained incredibly stable for more than a year. One would have to guess it will, to some degree, dishearten his supporters and destroy his narrative that the pandemic is pretty much going away. Most likely there will be no more presidential…

In rehearsing for 3 November, Trump says “I won the debate big, based on compilation of polls etc.”

Trump is workshopping the false victory declaration for election day. Oh, honey… https://t.co/52cbPTztpI https://t.co/aTXhzmOVXk pic.twitter.com/DBVq7E2K2z — Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) October 1, 2020 There were also focus groups, and Vox’s Andrew Prokop summarizes the findings of Frank Luntz’s group quite nicely: Asked to describe Trump in one word or phrase, the responses were: “horrid,” “chaotic,” “unpolished,” “crackhead,”…

Four National Polls Give Biden a 10 Point Lead

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… National Polls released today by Quinnipiac University (rated B+), Marquette University (rated A/B), and USC Dornsife (rated  B/C), and Politico (B/C) each give Joe Biden a lead of 10% against Trump.   poll.qu.edu/… “Voters think Biden is smarter, more honest, more level headed, and cares more about Americans than the president. And that, in part,…