Still about reality checks, considering that its still about GOTV and 3 November. Note that RCP is now showing a slight lead for Trump of +0.6% in some swing states, comparing 2020 and 2016. Things are different now especially with the candidates and pandemic constraints, but there are always potential bad signs which should be considered GOTV…
Category: Polling
Biden leads by 10% nationally (Q-Poll)
Biden continues to lead with no slippage nationally, and is apparently perceived by 13% as more intelligent than Trump (sic). x New Quinnipiac national poll: Biden 52%Trump 42% Second national poll of the day putting Biden +10, after MU Lawhttps://t.co/xUqrQzeaBs— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) September 23, 2020 x Brutal numbers for Trump in national Quinnipiac poll…
Trump Could Outperform the Polls by 3% – And Still Lose
The Princeton Election Consortium posts a daily map of the electoral college predictions based on current polling. In addition to the most likely scenario, they also post maps showing how the results change if either candidate outperforms the polling by 3%. This is important because 3% is the difference between the final polls in 2016…
Do polls undercount Trump support like COVID deaths
The strangest thing is the GOP attempt to con the nation into forgetting about a massive and avoidable death toll. x If this makes you feel rage, then you’ve got to vote. pic.twitter.com/hnFgB4lbUX— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) August 26, 2020 In polling, there’s still too much horse-racing as “gap-tightening” memes abound on the most boring…
Latest CAPS/Harris Poll: Biden at FIFTY-SIX Percent of Likely Voters! [Update w/ Texas Poll]
From The Hill just now: Biden doubles lead over Trump to 12 points in national poll Former Vice President Joe Biden doubled his lead over President Trump to 12 points as voters expressed disapproval with the Trump administration's handling of the coronavirus, racial tensions and the economy, according to the latest Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released…
close to the zenith of Trump derangement: Your enthusiasm is being dampened
With the latest CNN poll showing Trump nationally behind Biden by 14 points, Philip Bump does an interesting take on Trump’s need to believe his ultimate victory on the way to his bunker. Trump now has a personal pollster who is committed to telling his client what he wants to hear. Please proceed, IMPOTUS*. Trump’s…
Trump Threatens to Sue His Own Campaign Manager Over Bad Poll Numbers
CNN just posted a story about yet another Trumpertantrum, as the Great Orange Shitgibbet goes increasingly and noisily and totally insane: Trump erupts at campaign manager as reelection stress overflows As he huddled with advisers on Friday evening, President Donald Trump was still fuming over his sliding poll numbers and the onslaught of criticism he…
In 538's opinion, Up for Grabs still leads
Darn that reactionary uncertainty being the dominant feature of moderates’ ideology. Despite MSM’s spinning about Sanders and Buttigieg, FiveThirtyEight claims that no momentum was had from the first two primary campaign events. Three days after the New Hampshire primary, we are finally getting some polls that reflect the new state of the race — including a…
Woot! – Civiqs did stellar job with Iowa polling
Civiqs final Iowa Caucus poll performed well in a comparison with the major polls. x A look at how the final polls fared, with all the vote in and… roughly counted. I can think of plenty of ways to measure pollster error in a multi-candidate race, and it's possible other measures are subtly different, but…
POTUS* is a “continuing threat to Democracy” – the end of the Trump era begins
It has come to this, despite complaints that it’s all happening too fast while Trump refuses to follow the law. As Speaker Pelosi prays for Trump, so should we pray for the nation. Two presidents have been impeached by the House: Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton. No president has ever been convicted by the Senate,…
Trump Is Losing Republican Voters
WaPo’s Fix has a new analysis out this morning: Trump loves to tout his base. But a new poll shows increasing GOP support for impeachment — and even removing him. In fact, 28 percent of Republicans support the impeachment inquiry, and 18 percent say they support removing Trump from office, according to the poll. (The…
Trump's 2020 polling numbers are a disaster. Why doesn't his press coverage reflect that?
The Beltway press has spent years normalizing many things about Donald Trump's radical presidency. Now it seems to be normalizing Trump's disastrous polling numbers on the eve of his re-election run. Any other incumbent in his lowly polling position would likely be getting hammered by the pundit class as it dubbed his presidency a failure. But not Trump. …
Trump's 2020 polling numbers are a disaster. Why doesn't his press coverage reflect that?
The Beltway press has spent years normalizing many things about Donald Trump's radical presidency. Now it seems to be normalizing Trump's disastrous polling numbers on the eve of his re-election run. Any other incumbent in his lowly polling position would likely be getting hammered by the pundit class as it dubbed his presidency a failure. But not Trump. …
Media reporting on Trump's approval rating has become absurd
Talk about the bigotry of low expectations. As news outlets gather ‘round and marvel at Donald Trump's slowly improving popularity, he's basically being rewarded for having posted truly middling polling numbers for the past two years. Virtually ignored in all the coverage is the fact that Trump is the only president in the history of…
Breakthrough poll for Elizabeth Warren: she LEADS in two hypothetical head-to-head primary matchups!
Before I begin, I should note that there are two major caveats to the polling data that I’m about to share: The pollster that conducted this poll, HarrisX/Scott Rasmussen (note that HarrisX/Scott Rasmussen is a different pollster than Rasmussen Reports), is a right-leaning pollster: for example, their polling on Donald Trump’s approval rating is consistently…
The only thing that really surprises me is that it took this long.
For the 147,296th time, no, I am not spiking the football. Every time I try that, the damn thing bounces back up and clips me in the nits. Two polls do not make a “trend,” but if yesterdays Marist and the CNN poll of a couple of days ago are accurate, and buttressed by future reliable polling,…
Trump got his shutdown wish. Why doesn't he look more proud? Maybe because of this?
President Donald Trump stepped up, put his big-boy pants on, and took the mantle of leadership. “I’ll take responsibility for shutting it down, I won’t blame you for it,” he famously told Chuck Schumer in the Oval Office. “I’ll be proud to do it.” Not much space for misinterpretation there, is there? And Trump got…
A quick hint about interpreting some of these polling numbers.
o, I am not going to flaunt my masters degree in poli-sci from Jim Bob's University, Kwik Mart, and Bait Shop. I don't roll that way. But late last week, a GOP strategist said something that was actually logical, and made perfect sense. I know, go figure, huh? But it struck me at the time…
NBC/Marist poll shows Dems have a clear path to retaking the Senate
It’s still an uphill climb, but with the pr*sident of the United States’ brain gradually turning into a sponge cake, the path to a Democratic-controlled Senate is apparently becoming clearer. That’s the conclusion to be drawn from a fresh trio of NBC/Marist polls: With the GOP controlling the Senate by a slim 51-to-49 margin — after…
