Biden leads by 10% nationally (Q-Poll)

Biden continues to lead with no slippage nationally, and is apparently perceived by 13% as more intelligent than Trump (sic). x New Quinnipiac national poll: Biden 52%Trump 42% Second national poll of the day putting Biden +10, after MU Lawhttps://t.co/xUqrQzeaBs— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) September 23, 2020 x Brutal numbers for Trump in national Quinnipiac poll…

Trump Could Outperform the Polls by 3% – And Still Lose

The Princeton Election Consortium posts a daily map of the electoral college predictions based on current polling. In addition to the most likely scenario, they also post maps showing how the results change if either candidate outperforms the polling by 3%. This is important because 3% is the difference between the final polls in 2016…

Do polls undercount Trump support like COVID deaths

The strangest thing is the GOP attempt to con the nation into forgetting about a massive and avoidable death toll.   x If this makes you feel rage, then you’ve got to vote. pic.twitter.com/hnFgB4lbUX— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) August 26, 2020 In polling, there’s still too much horse-racing as “gap-tightening” memes abound on the most boring…

Trump Threatens to Sue His Own Campaign Manager Over Bad Poll Numbers

CNN just posted a story about yet another Trumpertantrum, as the Great Orange Shitgibbet goes increasingly and noisily and totally insane: Trump erupts at campaign manager as reelection stress overflows As he huddled with advisers on Friday evening, President Donald Trump was still fuming over his sliding poll numbers and the onslaught of criticism he…

In 538's opinion, Up for Grabs still leads

Darn that reactionary uncertainty being the dominant feature of moderates’ ideology. Despite MSM’s spinning about Sanders and Buttigieg, FiveThirtyEight claims that no momentum was had from the first two primary campaign events. Three days after the New Hampshire primary, we are finally getting some polls that reflect the new state of the race — including a…

Woot! – Civiqs did stellar job with Iowa polling

Civiqs final Iowa Caucus poll performed well in a comparison with the major polls. x A look at how the final polls fared, with all the vote in and… roughly counted. I can think of plenty of ways to measure pollster error in a multi-candidate race, and it's possible other measures are subtly different, but…

Trump Is Losing Republican Voters

WaPo’s Fix has a new analysis out this morning: Trump loves to tout his base. But a new poll shows increasing GOP support for impeachment — and even removing him. In fact, 28 percent of Republicans support the impeachment inquiry, and 18 percent say they support removing Trump from office, according to the poll. (The…

Media reporting on Trump's approval rating has become absurd

Talk about the bigotry of low expectations. As news outlets gather ‘round and marvel at Donald Trump's slowly improving popularity, he's basically being rewarded for having posted truly middling polling numbers for the past two years. Virtually ignored in all the coverage is the fact that Trump is the only president in the history of…

The only thing that really surprises me is that it took this long.

For the 147,296th time, no, I am not spiking the football. Every time I try that, the damn thing bounces back up and clips me in the nits. Two polls do not make a “trend,” but if yesterdays Marist and the CNN poll of a couple of days ago are accurate, and buttressed by future reliable polling,…

A quick hint about interpreting some of these polling numbers.

o, I am not going to flaunt my masters degree in poli-sci from Jim Bob's University, Kwik Mart, and Bait Shop. I don't roll that way. But late last week, a GOP strategist said something that was actually logical, and made perfect sense. I know, go figure, huh? But it struck me at the time…

NBC/Marist poll shows Dems have a clear path to retaking the Senate

It’s still an uphill climb, but with the pr*sident of the United States’ brain gradually turning into a sponge cake, the path to a Democratic-controlled Senate is apparently becoming clearer. That’s the conclusion to be drawn from a fresh trio of NBC/Marist polls: With the GOP controlling the Senate by a slim 51-to-49 margin — after…