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Polls, Damned Polls, and Probabilities because Trump's negging us with strange polling

3 min read

What is wrong with these polls? Is Trump disinforming himself to make himself feel better (by reading Breitbart). Is Trump negging us by using an old poll right after doing his “first post-shutdown” mini-rally in Michigan?

Today, Trump decided to cite a week-old 14 May Hannity page where a “poll conducted by SSRS of 15 battleground states found former Vice President Joe Biden trailing President Trump. The same poll, conducted for CNN, found Biden ahead of Trump nationally, but losing in the 15 states that might decide the vote in the Electoral College.”


And then there’s this poll from today:

“As noted by the (Restoration PAC) pollster, Trump will likely need to win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan to win in November.”


Although Joe Biden jumped into a double-digit lead over Donald Trump in a national Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday, a Thursday Restoration PAC poll from Pennsylvania bodes better for the president. As reported by Breitbart, the poll, which surveyed 600 likely Pennsylvania voters, shows Trump with 50.2 percent support compared to Biden’s 45.5 percent. The lead marks a 4.7 percent jump in Trump’s favor compared to the previous iteration of the survey.


As noted by the pollster, Trump will likely need to win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan to win in November. Although polls and experts expected Trump to lose all three states in 2016, he ended up beating Hillary Clinton in all three — in Pennsylvania by the most significant margin. According to Restoration PAC, Trump is currently losing to Biden in all but Pennsylvania.…

And then there’s this from RCP (because the convenient truth is the swing-states polling).







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