NorthCarolina

So, as I’m writing this, it’s pretty clear that Biden is going to win enough states to be the next President. But that won’t be official for awhile. Some of these races were tight. Some weren’t that tight, but Trump will likely pretend they were. What does that mean? It’s...

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  • November 6, 2020

Gravis Marketing leads off with a 13 point lead for Joe Biden in Michigan. That would be a fantastic number if it is accurate.  It would mean Democrats would likely roll up good numbers in Minnesota and Wisconsin as well. Even Ohio, which was 8% more Republican than Michigan in 2016, would...

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  • October 25, 2020

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… Morning Consult is waking us up this morning  with a number of great state polls, with the Arizona poll being about the only one that’s not great. The polls were taken October 11-20 of likely voters. This pollster is rated B/C by 538. State Presidential Polls 10/22 from Morning Consult State...

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  • October 22, 2020

We’ve all been hearing that Democrats have ad money to burn (so much that they’re running out of places to spend it) while Trump and his ilk are broke. But it gets much more obvious when you see it on a map, like the one the Wesleyan Media Project has...

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  • October 18, 2020

int.nyt.com/… The NYT/Siena Poll, rated A+ by 538, shows Joe Biden with a 46% to 42% lead over Trump in North Carolina with minor party candidates taking 4% of the vote.  Meanwhile, Democratic candidate for Senate, Cal Cunningham, leads Republican incumbent Thom Tillis by 41% to 37%, with 7% going...

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  • October 14, 2020

http://www.documentcloud.org/… West Virginia put a lot of faith in Donald Trump in 2016 and he won the state by 42.1% (68.6% to 26.5%). Today Research America’s poll shows Trump leading Joe Biden by only 14% (53% to 39%) a decrease of two thirds of his margin. One might rush to...

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  • October 13, 2020

http://www.nytimes.com/… The A+ rated NYT/Siena College Poll released this morning shows that Joe Biden is leading in Iowa 45% to 42% and is tied in Georgia with 45%. Trump has a 45% to 42% lead in Texas. Seltzer & Co., another A+ rated pollster, released a poll two days ago with ties in...

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  • September 24, 2020

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… The top rated pollster Siena College/NYT Upshot gives Joe Biden a 17% lead in Maine, a 9% lead in Arizona, and a 1% edge in North Carolina. The polls were taken September 11-17 (10-16 for AZ) from likely voters by Siena, which is rated A+ by 538. Siena/NYT Upshot Poll...

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  • September 18, 2020

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… The top rated pollster Siena College/NYT Upshot gives Joe Biden a 17% lead in Maine, a 9% lead in Arizona, and a 1% edge in North Carolina. The polls were taken September 11-17 (10-16 for AZ) from likely voters by Siena, which is rated A+ by 538. Siena/NYT Upshot Poll...

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  • September 18, 2020

http://www.monmouth.edu/… Monmouth University Poll gives Joe Biden a 2% edge in Arizona among likely voters but says the race is tied under a lower turnout scenario. Biden leads Trump 48% to 46% with higher turnout, and they are tied at 47% each with lower turnout. The poll says Trump has...

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  • September 17, 2020

http://www.monmouth.edu/… Monmouth University Poll gives Joe Biden a 2% edge in Arizona among likely voters but says the race is tied under a lower turnout scenario. Biden leads Trump 48% to 46% with higher turnout, and they are tied at 47% each with lower turnout. The poll says Trump has...

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  • September 17, 2020

Several state polls released this afternoon show the Biden campaign doing fairly well in a number of key states. http://www.monmouth.edu/… Monmouth University Poll gives Joe Biden a 50% to 45% lead in Florida among likely voters under a high turnout scenario. With a lower turnout, Biden’s lead shrinks to 49%...

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  • September 15, 2020

Trump’s handpicked (with all the gross implications that word conjures up) Postmaster General Louis DeJoy has almost certainly broken a lot of federal laws, including conflict of interest laws, in his open plot to break the Postal Service. But there is growing evidence that he has also broken North Carolina...

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  • September 7, 2020

A number of swing states or potential swing states have recent polls showing tighter than expected races in some Republican districts, including some incumbents. A poor showing by a congressional candidate can have some impact for that state’s Presidential or Senate elections, at least for states that having really close elections.  Most of...

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  • August 12, 2020

Politico has a very interesting article on how Trump’s campaign to cast doubt on the legitimacy of voting by mail may end up destroying any chance Republicans could win. http://www.politico.com/… New private polling shared first with POLITICO showed that Republicans have become overwhelmingly concerned about mail balloting, which Trump has...

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  • August 3, 2020

A newly released CBS/YouGov poll shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump 48% to 44% in North Carolina and by 46% to 45% in Georgia. cbsnews_20200802_GA_1 Further good news is Cal Cunningham is leading Republican incumbent Thom Tillis in the crucial North Carolina Senate race by 48% to 39%.  Democrat Jon Ossof...

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  • August 2, 2020

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… The NBC/Marist College Poll, a pollster rated A+ by 538, gives Joe Biden a significant lead of 7% in North Carolina, a state where the polls have been back and forth, usually within the margin of error. Biden has the support of 51% compared to 44% for Trump. Just...

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  • July 27, 2020

centerforpolitics.org/… Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted its ratings on another eight US House races. Five Republican held seats have moved toward the Democratic candidate. Two Democratic seats have gone from “Tossup” to “Lean Democrat”, and WI CD-3 has been shifted the other way from “Safe Democrat” to “Likely Democrat”. http://www.dailykos.com/… On...

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  • July 23, 2020

cookpolitical.com/… Cook Political Report is shifting its ratings of the key states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania from “Tossup” to “Lean Democrat”. Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district is also moved to “Lean Democrat” and Georgia is now a considered a “Tossup” state.  Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska’s 2nd district move from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. Maine, once in...

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  • July 8, 2020

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… Three separate pollsters released swing state polls today that might give Republicans serious health issues. The Sienna/New York Times Poll, Hodas and Associates, and Redfield and Wilton Strategies all released state polls, some of which are surprising positive for Joe Biden, especially Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Presidential State Polls with...

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  • June 25, 2020

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… Four separate pollsters released swing state polls today that might give Republicans serious health issues. The Sienna/New York Times Poll, Fox News Poll, Hodas and Associates, and Redfield and Wilton Strategies all released state polls, some of which are surprising positive for Joe Biden, especially Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Presidential...

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  • June 25, 2020

The New York Times reports that the Trump campaign is deeply worried about their candidate’s internal polls, and if they are anything like the publicly available polls, one can see why. National polls still show Joe Biden leading by seven or eight points on average though some of the higher...

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  • June 4, 2020

Democratic Governor Roy Cooper sent a letter to the Republican National Convention refusing to guarantee a full scale traditional convention in Charlotte August 23rd as Donald Trump demands. http://www.charlotteobserver.com/… In a letter, the governor told RNC officials that face coverings and social distancing are “a necessity” as they plan a convention during...

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  • June 2, 2020

Trump needs/wants the big crowds, because he doesn’t care about the chaos of infection spread, especially if he will appear to be in a downward spiral approaching November Third. Do Republicans deserve to be infected or is it more about their ability to infect others beyond Trumpists, especially since Trump prefers the...

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  • May 25, 2020

A survey of nearly 23,000 Americans across every state shows Donald Trump’s response to the pandemic gets a lower rating than every governor in their own state.  While this is not too surprising considering none of the governors (to my knowledge) has mused about people being injected with cleaning fluids, it...

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  • April 30, 2020

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… A number of recent state polls have been released over the past week and almost all have good news for Biden. The bump Trump got in his approval in March is now history, in fact a Morning Consult Poll shows Trump’s rating of his handling of the pandemic has...

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  • April 28, 2020

http://www.washingtonpost.com/… The Washington Post Reports that former presidential candidate  Mike Bloomberg is forming an independent campaign to attack Donald Trump  keeping alive his extensive, well-funded organization in battleground states. Bloomberg’s advisers have identified Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida and North Carolina as the six states that will decide the electoral college winner this year. Staffers...

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  • March 5, 2020

Freedom Caucus leader and major Trump fan Mark Meadows of North Carolina’s CD-11 announced  he is leaving Congress possibly to join the Trump Administration. time.com/… “My work with President Trump and his administration is only beginning. This President has accomplished incredible results for the country in just three years, and...

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  • December 19, 2019

emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/… Three Leading Democrats are beating Donald Trump in Ohio, according to an Emerson Poll newly released. Bernie Sanders outpolls Trump 53% to 47%, Joe Biden by 53% to 47%, and Elizabeth Warren by 52% to 48%. On the issue of impeachment, 47% of voters support impeachment with 43% opposing and...

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  • October 3, 2019

Democratic candidate Cal Cunningham has a two point edge in the 2020 Senate race in North Carolina over Republican incumbent Tom Tillis who has a high unfavorable rate. thehill.com/… The poll, conducted by the left-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP) and commissioned by the Democratic outside group End Citizens United, shows...

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  • September 18, 2019

As Donald Trump’s approval rating has continued to stagnate, and people far and wide have come to see him more and more as just a flailing mass of gelatinous orange goo, #PABOTUS has attempted to rouse his base by going full DEF CON RACIST. Maybe his strategy is working in the...

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  • September 12, 2019

http://www.insideelections.com/… drive.google.com/… An independent poll released today shows Democrat Dan McCready has a 4% lead in the September 10th rerun election for North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District. State Senator Dan Bishop is the Republican candidate. The survey, conducted Aug. 26-28 by Harper Polling and Clarity Campaign Labs, showed McCready with a...

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  • August 30, 2019

http://www.surveyusa.com/… A Survey USA Presidential poll taken in North Carolina from August 1 to August 5 shows Donald Trump losing to Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. Other major Democratic candidates are within one or two percent of Trump. Democrats Trump Margin Survey USA Poll of North Carolina 8/1 to 8/5...

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  • August 9, 2019

morningconsult.com/… Three Republican Senators up for reelection in 2020 have negative approvals in their home states. Collins in Maine, Gardner in Colorado, Tillis in North Carolina, and McSally in Arizona will surely be the biggest targets for the Democrats. Eleven Republicans rate at below 46% approval but most are in...

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  • July 18, 2019

poll.qu.edu/…  Today’s Quinnipiac poll finds all the better known Democratic candidates would defeat Donald Trump if the election were held today.          Joe Biden leads by 53% to 40% Bernie Sanders 51%, Trump 42% Kamala Harris 49%, Trump 41% Elizabeth Warren 49%, Trump 42% Pete Buttigieg 47%, Trump 42% Cory Booker 47%, Trump...

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  • June 11, 2019

fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/… An Ipsos/Reuters national poll shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump 50% to 36% for president. Trump also loses to Bernie Sanders by 46% to 37%. The poll was conducted May 29 through June 5 and surveyed 3851 registered voters. Other Democratic candidates are also leading Trump but by smaller...

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  • June 6, 2019

http://www.vox.com/… Donald Trump’s approval rate is quite dismal in many of the key states that will decide the 2020 election, according to Morning Consult. This is one of a series of polls that show Trump in trouble despite an economy that has been doing well until now. morningconsult.com/… New Hampshire:...

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  • June 5, 2019

talkingpointsmemo.com/… Rep. Mark Walker (R-NC), a member of House GOP leadership, appears to be the unnamed “Public Official A” in a bombshell public corruption probe unsealed on Tuesday. A federal grand jury indicted four men, including North Carolina Republican Party Chairman Robin Hayes, in a bribery scheme in which businessman Greg Lindberg...

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  • April 3, 2019

Okay, so a bunch of candidates are stepping up to fill Mark Harris’ shady shoes in the North Carolina District 9 take-two election, and one, Matthew Ridenhour, is attempting to make his mark on social media. In a Facebook post on Friday, Ridenhour sent out a retouched photo of Democrat Dan...

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  • March 23, 2019
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