Recount 2020: Contested states and their recount rules

So, as I’m writing this, it’s pretty clear that Biden is going to win enough states to be the next President. But that won’t be official for awhile. Some of these races were tight. Some weren’t that tight, but Trump will likely pretend they were. What does that mean? It’s recount season, y’all! Every state…

State Polls: Biden Tied in GA, MI +13%, TX +3%, NC +4%, FL +2%

Gravis Marketing leads off with a 13 point lead for Joe Biden in Michigan. That would be a fantastic number if it is accurate.  It would mean Democrats would likely roll up good numbers in Minnesota and Wisconsin as well. Even Ohio, which was 8% more Republican than Michigan in 2016, would be a likely win. This…

Morning Consult Has Mostly Great State Polls

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… Morning Consult is waking us up this morning  with a number of great state polls, with the Arizona poll being about the only one that’s not great. The polls were taken October 11-20 of likely voters. This pollster is rated B/C by 538. State Presidential Polls 10/22 from Morning Consult State Biden Trump Trump Margin Trump…

Map Shows Biden Whopping Trump in Ad Buys

We’ve all been hearing that Democrats have ad money to burn (so much that they’re running out of places to spend it) while Trump and his ilk are broke. But it gets much more obvious when you see it on a map, like the one the Wesleyan Media Project has put out (above): Biden Continues…

Siena Poll: Biden +4% in NC; Quinnipiac Poll: Biden +7% in GA, +1% in OH

int.nyt.com/… The NYT/Siena Poll, rated A+ by 538, shows Joe Biden with a 46% to 42% lead over Trump in North Carolina with minor party candidates taking 4% of the vote.  Meanwhile, Democratic candidate for Senate, Cal Cunningham, leads Republican incumbent Thom Tillis by 41% to 37%, with 7% going to others in the race….

This Morning's Polls: Biden Winning WI (+9), AZ (+9), ME (+17), NC (+1)

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… The top rated pollster Siena College/NYT Upshot gives Joe Biden a 17% lead in Maine, a 9% lead in Arizona, and a 1% edge in North Carolina. The polls were taken September 11-17 (10-16 for AZ) from likely voters by Siena, which is rated A+ by 538. Siena/NYT Upshot Poll Biden Trump Arizona 49% 40%…

DeJoy In Legal Trouble in North Carolina

Trump’s handpicked (with all the gross implications that word conjures up) Postmaster General Louis DeJoy has almost certainly broken a lot of federal laws, including conflict of interest laws, in his open plot to break the Postal Service. But there is growing evidence that he has also broken North Carolina campaign finance laws — and…

Polls Show Some Republican House Seats Surprisingly Competitive in Swing States

A number of swing states or potential swing states have recent polls showing tighter than expected races in some Republican districts, including some incumbents. A poor showing by a congressional candidate can have some impact for that state’s Presidential or Senate elections, at least for states that having really close elections.  Most of these polls are by partisan…

CBS Poll: Biden Leads by 4% in North Carolina and Has 1% Edge in Georgia

A newly released CBS/YouGov poll shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump 48% to 44% in North Carolina and by 46% to 45% in Georgia. cbsnews_20200802_GA_1 Further good news is Cal Cunningham is leading Republican incumbent Thom Tillis in the crucial North Carolina Senate race by 48% to 39%.  Democrat Jon Ossof is only two points behind…

Crystal Ball Changes Ratings on 8 US House Races, 7 in Favor of Democratic Candidates

centerforpolitics.org/… Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted its ratings on another eight US House races. Five Republican held seats have moved toward the Democratic candidate. Two Democratic seats have gone from “Tossup” to “Lean Democrat”, and WI CD-3 has been shifted the other way from “Safe Democrat” to “Likely Democrat”. http://www.dailykos.com/… On July 2, Crystal Ball changed…

Cook Report Moves Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to Lean Democrat, Biden leading with 279 EV

cookpolitical.com/… Cook Political Report is shifting its ratings of the key states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania from “Tossup” to “Lean Democrat”. Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district is also moved to “Lean Democrat” and Georgia is now a considered a “Tossup” state.  Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska’s 2nd district move from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. Maine, once in Lean Democrat, moves to the…

State Poll Summary: Three Pollsters Release Numbers That Will Give Republicans Major Headaches

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… Three separate pollsters released swing state polls today that might give Republicans serious health issues. The Sienna/New York Times Poll, Hodas and Associates, and Redfield and Wilton Strategies all released state polls, some of which are surprising positive for Joe Biden, especially Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Presidential State Polls with Pollsters Ratings by 538 State…