projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… The top rated pollster Siena College/NYT Upshot gives Joe Biden a 17% lead in Maine, a 9% lead in Arizona, and a 1% edge in North Carolina. The polls were taken September 11-17 (10-16 for AZ) from likely voters by Siena, which is rated A+ by 538. Siena/NYT Upshot Poll Biden Trump Arizona 49% 40%…
Category: NorthCarolina
Cook Reports Changes Arizona to “Lean Biden”; Two Polls Today Show Small Biden Lead in AZ
http://www.monmouth.edu/… Monmouth University Poll gives Joe Biden a 2% edge in Arizona among likely voters but says the race is tied under a lower turnout scenario. Biden leads Trump 48% to 46% with higher turnout, and they are tied at 47% each with lower turnout. The poll says Trump has a lead of 51% to…
Cook Report Changes Arizona to “Lean Biden”; Two Polls Today Show Small Biden Lead in AZ
http://www.monmouth.edu/… Monmouth University Poll gives Joe Biden a 2% edge in Arizona among likely voters but says the race is tied under a lower turnout scenario. Biden leads Trump 48% to 46% with higher turnout, and they are tied at 47% each with lower turnout. The poll says Trump has a lead of 51% to…
Biden Leads by 5% in FL, 10% in WI, and 3% in NC
Several state polls released this afternoon show the Biden campaign doing fairly well in a number of key states. http://www.monmouth.edu/… Monmouth University Poll gives Joe Biden a 50% to 45% lead in Florida among likely voters under a high turnout scenario. With a lower turnout, Biden’s lead shrinks to 49% to 46%. Monmouth is rated…
DeJoy In Legal Trouble in North Carolina
Trump’s handpicked (with all the gross implications that word conjures up) Postmaster General Louis DeJoy has almost certainly broken a lot of federal laws, including conflict of interest laws, in his open plot to break the Postal Service. But there is growing evidence that he has also broken North Carolina campaign finance laws — and…
Polls Show Some Republican House Seats Surprisingly Competitive in Swing States
A number of swing states or potential swing states have recent polls showing tighter than expected races in some Republican districts, including some incumbents. A poor showing by a congressional candidate can have some impact for that state’s Presidential or Senate elections, at least for states that having really close elections. Most of these polls are by partisan…
Politico: Some Trump Supporters Say They May Not Vote If a Ballot Arrives by Mail
Politico has a very interesting article on how Trump’s campaign to cast doubt on the legitimacy of voting by mail may end up destroying any chance Republicans could win. http://www.politico.com/… New private polling shared first with POLITICO showed that Republicans have become overwhelmingly concerned about mail balloting, which Trump has claimed, without evidence, will lead…
CBS Poll: Biden Leads by 4% in North Carolina and Has 1% Edge in Georgia
A newly released CBS/YouGov poll shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump 48% to 44% in North Carolina and by 46% to 45% in Georgia. cbsnews_20200802_GA_1 Further good news is Cal Cunningham is leading Republican incumbent Thom Tillis in the crucial North Carolina Senate race by 48% to 39%. Democrat Jon Ossof is only two points behind…
North Carolina Polls: Biden leads by 7%, Cooper by 20%, and Cunningham by 9%
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… The NBC/Marist College Poll, a pollster rated A+ by 538, gives Joe Biden a significant lead of 7% in North Carolina, a state where the polls have been back and forth, usually within the margin of error. Biden has the support of 51% compared to 44% for Trump. Just as important is the 9%…
Crystal Ball Changes Ratings on 8 US House Races, 7 in Favor of Democratic Candidates
centerforpolitics.org/… Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted its ratings on another eight US House races. Five Republican held seats have moved toward the Democratic candidate. Two Democratic seats have gone from “Tossup” to “Lean Democrat”, and WI CD-3 has been shifted the other way from “Safe Democrat” to “Likely Democrat”. http://www.dailykos.com/… On July 2, Crystal Ball changed…
Cook Report Moves Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to Lean Democrat, Biden leading with 279 EV
cookpolitical.com/… Cook Political Report is shifting its ratings of the key states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania from “Tossup” to “Lean Democrat”. Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district is also moved to “Lean Democrat” and Georgia is now a considered a “Tossup” state. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska’s 2nd district move from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. Maine, once in Lean Democrat, moves to the…
State Poll Summary: Three Pollsters Release Numbers That Will Give Republicans Major Headaches
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… Three separate pollsters released swing state polls today that might give Republicans serious health issues. The Sienna/New York Times Poll, Hodas and Associates, and Redfield and Wilton Strategies all released state polls, some of which are surprising positive for Joe Biden, especially Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Presidential State Polls with Pollsters Ratings by 538 State…
State Poll Summary: Four Pollsters Release Numbers That Will Give Republicans Major Headaches
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… Four separate pollsters released swing state polls today that might give Republicans serious health issues. The Sienna/New York Times Poll, Fox News Poll, Hodas and Associates, and Redfield and Wilton Strategies all released state polls, some of which are surprising positive for Joe Biden, especially Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Presidential State Polls with Pollsters Ratings…
State Poll Summary: Is Trump's Base Starting to Crack?
The New York Times reports that the Trump campaign is deeply worried about their candidate’s internal polls, and if they are anything like the publicly available polls, one can see why. National polls still show Joe Biden leading by seven or eight points on average though some of the higher quality polls are starting to…
NC Governor Rejects Trump's Demands for 19,000 Person Convention; RNC Looking Elsewhere
Democratic Governor Roy Cooper sent a letter to the Republican National Convention refusing to guarantee a full scale traditional convention in Charlotte August 23rd as Donald Trump demands. http://www.charlotteobserver.com/… In a letter, the governor told RNC officials that face coverings and social distancing are “a necessity” as they plan a convention during the novel coronavirus pandemic. Republican…
more plague spreading: Trump demands a contagious arena in North Carolina for the RNC
Trump needs/wants the big crowds, because he doesn’t care about the chaos of infection spread, especially if he will appear to be in a downward spiral approaching November Third. Do Republicans deserve to be infected or is it more about their ability to infect others beyond Trumpists, especially since Trump prefers the crowds in Florida instead of…
Trump Polling Worse on Pandemic Than All 50 Governors
A survey of nearly 23,000 Americans across every state shows Donald Trump’s response to the pandemic gets a lower rating than every governor in their own state. While this is not too surprising considering none of the governors (to my knowledge) has mused about people being injected with cleaning fluids, it is interesting to see how…
State Poll Summary: Biden Leads, But Swing States Are Still Close
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… A number of recent state polls have been released over the past week and almost all have good news for Biden. The bump Trump got in his approval in March is now history, in fact a Morning Consult Poll shows Trump’s rating of his handling of the pandemic has dropped 22 points since their…
Bloomberg Forms Independent PAC to Attack Trump in Swing States
http://www.washingtonpost.com/… The Washington Post Reports that former presidential candidate Mike Bloomberg is forming an independent campaign to attack Donald Trump keeping alive his extensive, well-funded organization in battleground states. Bloomberg’s advisers have identified Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida and North Carolina as the six states that will decide the electoral college winner this year. Staffers in each of those states…
Mark Meadows Is Third North Carolina Republican to Announce Retirement from the US House
Freedom Caucus leader and major Trump fan Mark Meadows of North Carolina’s CD-11 announced he is leaving Congress possibly to join the Trump Administration. time.com/… “My work with President Trump and his administration is only beginning. This President has accomplished incredible results for the country in just three years, and I’m fully committed to staying…
