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Trump Could Outperform the Polls by 3% – And Still Lose

1 min read

The Princeton Election Consortium posts a daily map of the electoral college predictions based on current polling. In addition to the most likely scenario, they also post maps showing how the results change if either candidate outperforms the polling by 3%.

This is important because 3% is the difference between the final polls in 2016 and the actual result.

In the most likely scenario, Biden get 320 EV to Trump's 169. North Carolina, Ohio, and Georgia are too close to call.

If Biden outperforms the polling by 3%, he gets 407 EV to Trump’s 119. He gets all 3 of the close states in the main scenario, while Iowa and Arkansas become too close to call. HE ALSO GETS TEXAS!

AND… if Trump outperforms by 3%, he gets all the undecided votes — but Biden does not lose a single state. The final score is Biden 320, Trump 218. (That’s the map above.) Nevada, Arizona, Florida and one district in Maine would move from solid or likely Dem to lean Dem. But Biden could lose all 3 and still have 273 votes.

Summary: There’s no reason to panic. There IS reason to work to get Biden to 3% or more above the current polling.

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