State Polls: Biden Tied in TX, +8 PA, +4 FL, +5 IA, +9 NV, +10 MN

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…

It’s nearly all plus signs for Joe Biden in today’s state polls. The forecast from 538 has Biden with a 87% of winning and a 10% national lead (some of today’s national polls are quite Republican).

Being tied at 47% in Texas is a great achievement for the Biden campaign.

poll.qu.edu/…

Among those who will vote in person on Election Day, 62 percent support Trump and 32 percent support Biden.
Among those who are voting by mail or absentee ballot, 63 percent say they support Biden and 31 percent support Trump.
Among those who are voting at an early voting location, 48 percent support Biden and 46 percent support Trump.
“Biden and Trump find themselves in a Texas stand-off, setting the stage for a bare knuckle battle for 38 electoral votes,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
Likely voters have mixed views of both candidates, but opinions of Biden have improved since last month.

The shift in Iowa is also quite  notable, though it is not big enough to be a key state by itself, it does portend well for the neighboring states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Nebraska CD-2.

www.monmouth.edu/…

Biden pulls ahead, though, when different likely voter models are applied. A model based on a relatively high level of turnout puts the race at 50% Biden and 47% Trump, while a model reflecting lower turnout produces an even wider 51% to 46% result. Trump led by 3 points among likely voters in Monmouth’s poll last month. Biden’s lead is wider in the lower turnout scenario because of the large number of Democratic ballots that have already been cast. Over one-third (37%) of registered voters say they have already returned their ballots. The overwhelming majority of these votes have gone to Biden (71%) rather than Trump (28%). If turnout ends up being low at this point, it would be due mainly to Republican-leaning Election Day voters deciding to stay home.

Siena/NYT, another A+ pollster, shows Biden with a lead of 46% to 43% with others getting 3%.

Iowa also has a critical Senate race. In that race Greenfield is leading Ernst 51% to 45%, according to the Monmouth Poll.

In the Kansas Senate race, one pollster has it for the Republican candidate Marshall by 12%. Another has Marshall tied with Democratic candidate Bollier at 43%. Both of these are for partisan clients.

10/21 Presidential State Polls
ST  Poll & Rating Biden Trump Trump Margin Trump 2016
AK PPP *              B 45% 50% +5% +15%
AZ Rasmussen C

Ipsos            B-

48%

50%

46%

46%

-2%

-4%

+3.5%
FL Civiqs         B/C

CNN           B/C

Ipsos           B-

51%

50%

51%

47%

46%

46%

-4%

-4%

-5%

+1.3%
IA Monmouth A+

Siena           A+

Emerson     A-

51%

46%

48%

46%

43%

48%

-5%

-3%

0

+9%
KS  co-eff.*     C/D

PPP*          B

39%

42%

56%

54%

+17%

+12%

+20%
MN Civiqs        B/C 53% 43% -10% -1.5%
NV Civiqs        B/C 52% 43% -9% -2.4%
PA Suffolk       A

Quinnipiac B+

CNN           B/C

49%

51%

53%

43%

43%

43%

-6%

-8%

-10%

+0.7%
TX Quinnipiac B+ 47% 47% 0 +9%
WI Latino D.*  B/C

Susquen.     C

50%

45%

45%

45%

-5%

0

+0.8%
  • = partisan poll