It’s becoming the story of the election that the suburban areas, especially those with many well-educated people are shifting strongly toward Joe Biden and Democratic candidates.
According to Dave Wasserman of Cook Reports, most congressional districts are shifting by about 8 points, but some suburban districts are shifting more. It seems Andrea Mitchell of NBC News has also been allowed a look at these campaign polls that are mostly kept private.
: “(Seeing) multiple polls out of districts Romney carried by 15+ & Trump 10+ in 2016 where Joe Biden is now ahead. These are suburbs of Indianapolis, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Phoenix, San Antonio. This suggests real problems for Republicans up & down ballot.” #AMRstaff
There is a suburban GOP-held House seat that Romney won by 15%+ and Trump won by 10%+. Today, at least two private surveys I've seen have Trump *down* 10%+ there.In the past few weeks, I've heard the word “bloodbath” uttered in multiple convos w/ GOP pollsters/ad makers.
Biden is outperforming Clinton's margins by 8-10 points pretty steadily, consistent w/ a 10-12 point national lead. The exceptions: low-income Hispanic districts (where Trump is doing better than '16) & high-college suburban districts (catastrophic 10+ point Trump losses).