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Calm down. GOTV. Individual polls still need to be ignored as Biden still leads

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Is getting angry better than being nervous. One poll does not a victory make. Nate Cohn calls the Selzer poll result for Iowa a “miss”, but it does suggest a trend, like the closing state poll in Florida. More useful is Cohn’s conclusion that at this moment Biden wins with...

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  • November 1, 2020
/ 2020polls / 538 / biden / Change / CNBC / Confirmation / Debate / Debates / Joe / JoeBiden / Poll / Polls / Presidential / Race / September / State / Taxes / TheHill / Trump / Vote / Voters

CNBC/Change Research Poll Shows Biden Leads by 13% Nationally

thehill.com/… The CNBC/Change Research Poll shows Joe Biden with the support of 54% of likely voters compared to 41% for Trump. Only 29% of voters thought Trump performed better in the first debated compared to 53% for Biden. Still, the debate doesn’t appear to have had a significant impact on...

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  • October 1, 2020
/ 2020polls / 538 / biden / Change / CNBC / Confirmation / Debate / Debates / Greenfield / Iowa / Joe / JoeBiden / Poll / Polls / Presidential / Race / Senate / September / State / Taxes / TheHill / Trump / Vote / Voters

CNBC Poll Shows Biden Leads by 13% Nationally; Greenfield Takes Big Lead for Iowa Senate

thehill.com/… The CNBC/Change Research Poll shows Joe Biden with the support of 54% of likely voters compared to 41% for Trump. Only 29% of voters thought Trump performed better in the first debated compared to 53% for Biden. Still, the debate doesn’t appear to have had a significant impact on...

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  • October 1, 2020
/ 2016 / 2018 / 2020 / 2020election / Avalanche / biden / BreonnaTaylor / Campaign / Candidate / Carroll / College / Conservative / Culture / Defense / Democrats / Difference / DonaldTrump / e / Education / EJeanCarroll / Election / Election2020 / Empathy / eric / EricTrump / Evidence / Faith / give / heaven / IDEA / Income / Joe / Losing / Louisville / Media / Militia / moral / MorningConsult / News / NY / NYAG / October / p / person / Poll / Polling / Polls / Power / President / QAnon / Quinnipiac / Racist / REAL / September / supporters / TheAtlantic / Trump / Twitter / unknown / Voters

Biden leads by 10% nationally (Q-Poll)

Biden continues to lead with no slippage nationally, and is apparently perceived by 13% as more intelligent than Trump (sic). x New Quinnipiac national poll: Biden 52%Trump 42% Second national poll of the day putting Biden +10, after MU Lawhttps://t.co/xUqrQzeaBs— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) September 23, 2020 x Brutal numbers for...

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  • September 23, 2020
/ 2016 / 46 / 538 / Atlantic / biden / Black / black voters / Bloomberg / Campaign / Clinton / CNN / CNN.com / Cook / Counties / Democrat / Difference / Families / FL / Florida / Help / Hillary / Hillary Clinton / Independent / Joe / Kenosha / Latino / Latinos / Men / Military / Milwaukee / Minnesota / Monmouth / Murray / NorthCarolina / Poll / Polling / Polls / President / Ratings / Republican / September / State / suburbs / Trump / Turnout / Virginia / Voters / Wisconsin / Women

Biden Leads by 5% in FL, 10% in WI, and 3% in NC

Several state polls released this afternoon show the Biden campaign doing fairly well in a number of key states. http://www.monmouth.edu/… Monmouth University Poll gives Joe Biden a 50% to 45% lead in Florida among likely voters under a high turnout scenario. With a lower turnout, Biden’s lead shrinks to 49%...

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  • September 15, 2020
/ 2016 / 2020 / 2020election / 46 / AP / Assassination / Azerbaijan / Ballots / BEAUTY / Berman / biden / Black / Bolivia / bolton / Book / Bush / Campaigns / Candidate / Candidates / Clinton / CNN / College / Corrupt / Culture / Democracy / Democrat / Devil / Disinformation / Donald / Donald Trump / DonaldTrump / Ecuador / Education / Election / Election2020 / Elections / Facebook / Fake / Financial / foreign / Funding / Hate / History / IDEA / India / interference / Iran / Joe / Legislation / McConnell / Media / Men / mercenary / Midwest / Obama / Party / plans / Politics / Poll / Polling / Polls / POTUS / President / Presidential / Republican / RNC / September / Sex / Spain / State / supporters / Time / TimOBrien / Trump / Twitter / Ukraine / Venezuela / Volunteers / Vote / Voters / Voting / Voting Rights / Wisconsin / Women / Woodward / YouGov

AP poll: Biden leads by 12% but 21% are undecided (of which 32% are “independents”)

50 days and Biden still leads nationally but there are fewer undecideds than 2016 in the details when you get to registered and likely voters, even if they have been declining since July. Like most polling, the devil’s in the details. x NEW via @AP: Biden is beating Trump nationally...

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  • September 15, 2020
/ 2016 / 46 / 538 / Becoming / biden / BrianKemp / CalCunningham / CBS / CBSNews / Clinton / College / Cooper / CoronaVirus / COVID / Covid-19 / DavidPerdue / Democrat / Democrats / Donald / Donald Trump / Federal / Fight / Georgia / Government / Governor / Hillary / Hillary Clinton / Joe / kemp / negative / News / NorthCarolina / Pandemic / Poll / Positive / Questions / Race / Republican / Response / RoyCooper / Senate / SonnyPerdue / State / ThomTillis / Trump / Vote / Voters / YouGov

CBS Poll: Biden Leads by 4% in North Carolina and Has 1% Edge in Georgia

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A newly released CBS/YouGov poll shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump 48% to 44% in North Carolina and by 46% to 45% in Georgia. cbsnews_20200802_GA_1 Further good news is Cal Cunningham is leading Republican incumbent Thom Tillis in the crucial North Carolina Senate race by 48% to 39%.  Democrat Jon Ossof...

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  • August 2, 2020
/ 2016 / 2020 / 538 / Ballot / Ballots / biden / CalCunningham / College / Congress / Cooper / Counties / Democrats / Dems / Economy / Election / ElectProject / forrest / General / Governor / Joe / NBC / NorthCarolina / Pandemic / Party / Poll / Polls / Race / Republican / RoyCooper / Senate / September / State / Trump / Voters

North Carolina Polls: Biden leads by 7%, Cooper by 20%, and Cunningham by 9%

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… The NBC/Marist College Poll, a pollster rated A+ by 538, gives Joe Biden a significant lead of 7% in North Carolina, a state where the polls have been back and forth, usually within the margin of error. Biden has the support of 51% compared to 44% for Trump. Just...

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  • July 27, 2020
/ 2020 / 2020 elections / 46 / 538 / AARP / Ballot / Ballots / biden / Campaign / COVID / Covid-19 / Democrats / Dems / DeSantis / Digit / Election / Elections / ElectProject / FL / Florida / Fox / give / Governor / House / Joe / Mail / Mi / Miami / Michigan / Minnesota / Nov / PA / Pandemic / Pennsylvania / Poll / Polls / Positive / President / Presidential / presidentialpolls / Public / Quinnipiac / quinnipiacpolls / Race / Republicans / Response / State / Trump / Vice President / Vote / Voters / White House

Quinnipiac: Biden Has 13% Lead in Florida; Fox Poll: Biden Has Major Leads in PA, MI, and MN

poll.qu.edu/… The Quinnipiac University Poll has just released a survey showing Joe Biden leading Trump by 51% to 38% in Florida, one of the largest swing states. The last time Quinnipiac polled Florida was in April when Biden had a 4% lead. Website 538 rates Quinnipiac as a B+ pollster.  aarp-states.brightspotcdn.com/…...

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  • July 23, 2020
/ 2016 / 2019 / 2020 / 46 / 538 / Alabama / Americans / AmyMcGrath / Arizona / Az / biden / Change / Clinton / Confirmation / Congressman / Election / FL / Florida / Ga / gain / Gallup / Gender / General / Geography / Georgia / GOP / Governor / Hillary / Hillary Clinton / House / Kentucky / Losing / McConnell / McGrath / Mi / Michigan / Missouri / Monmouth / Montana / News / PA / Pandemic / Partisan / Party / Pennsylvania / Politico / Poll / Polling / Polls / Presidential / Primary / Quinnipiac / Race / Rasmussen / Reality / Republican / RV / State / Trouble / Trump / Turnout / Voters / Washington / YouGov

State Poll Summary: Biden Holds 10% Margin; McConnell Only Leads by 4% in KY

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… The year 2020 has been quite a year, and we are only about half way through. It is 110 days until the election and less than six weeks until the first absentee votes are cast. Trump is in trouble, but his polling isn’t getting worse as fast as the pandemic...

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  • July 16, 2020
/ 2016 / 2020 / 2020election / Arizona / Axios / biden / Border / Campaign / Candidates / CNN / Conversation / CoronaVirus / COVID / Covid-19 / COVID19 / Culture / Deaths / Eagle / Election / Election2020 / eric / Facebook / Fiasco / Golf / Joe / kushner / Law / Leadership / Lies / Losing / Media / Mexico / Miller / Oversight / Pandemic / parscale / person / Phoenix / Politics / Polling / Polls / President / Presidential / PublicHealth / Rally / Remembering / Spotlight / State / Students / Stupid / testing / Trump / Truth / Tulsa / Twitter / Veterans / Wall / Youth

US still leads in COVID deaths, as Trump slows testing, visits Arizona today

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Trump’s going to visit the three miles of new fence (197 miles are replacement fencing), and do undoubtedly another youth rally, remembering that the last one featured a presidential crest with golf clubs held by the eagle. A campaign shake-up looks to be ahead that might exclude Kushner while dumping Parscale, WHO...

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  • June 23, 2020
/ 2016 / biden / Black / Black Lives Matter / BlackLivesMatter / BLM / borders / chauvin / Clinton / Death / Donald / Donald Trump / Floyd / georgefloyd / Guilt / Guilty / Hillary / Hillary Clinton / Iowa / Joe / Marketing / Midwest / Minneapolis / Minnesota / negative / Police / policereform / Poll / Positive / Protests / Questions / State / Trump / Wisconsin

Minnesota Poll: Biden leads by 16% and 57% approve of Black Lives Matter

http://www.gravismarketing.com/… Gravis Marketing released a poll today showing Joe Biden has a 58% to 42% lead in Minnesota, a closely divided state that was also the scene of racial and anti-police disturbances after the death of George Floyd on May 25. In addition to being a state that Donald Trump came...

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  • June 20, 2020
/ 2016 / 2020 / 2020election / AmyMcGrath / Bankruptcy / biden / BlueWave / Campaign / CoronaVirus / Courtesy / Democrats / Dems / Donald / Donald Trump / DonaldTrump / Donate / Election / Election2020 / Financial / GOP / GOTV / IDEA / Joe / Kentucky / McConnell / McGrath / Moscow / News / Poll / Polling / Public / Republicans / Senate / State / Trouble / Trump / Virus / Voters

KY-Sen: PPP Shows Moscow Mitch Only Leads Dems By 3 Points While Trump Beats Biden By 16 Points

Here’s the latest news out of Kentucky courtesy of Public Policy Polling: PPP’s newest Kentucky poll finds that Mitch McConnell continues to be unpopular in the state, with only 41% of voters approving of the job he’s doing to 48% who disapprove. Only 69% of Republicans approve of the job...

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  • May 20, 2020
/ 2020election / 46 / 538 / Atlantic / biden / Business / Counties / Donald / Donald Trump / FL / Florida / Fox / Ga / Independent / Joe / JoeBiden / links / March / Miami / News / Poll / Polls / Presidential / Quinnipiac / State / StPetePolls / Thinking / Trump / Voters / Voting

Latest Polls: Biden at 53% in Florida; Trump Leads by 2% in GA and 3% in NC

The website 538 lists five presidential polls in Florida since April 1 and Donald Trump does not lead in any of them. Each of the polls are by different pollsters and use different methodology. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… Presidential polls florida Pollsters Biden Trump Dates Links Florida Atlantic University 53 47 5/8-5/12 business.fau.edu/… Fox...

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  • May 15, 2020
/ 2020 / 2020election / America / appointment / Becoming / BlueWave / Campaign / Court / Courts / Democrats / DickDurbin / DonaldTrump / durbin / e / Election / Election2020 / Family / farrightjudges / Federal / federaljudges / Judge / Judges / Kentucky / Loyalty / Mail / McConnell / Moscow / Nominee / Pandemic / Party / qualified / Republican / Republican Party / Senate / Shameful / Stop

IL-Sen: Dick Durbin (D) Leads The Call To Stop Moscow Mitch’s Protege From Becoming A Federal Judge

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Received this e-mail today from U.S. Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin’s (D. IL) re-election campaign: Sen. Dick Durbin (D. IL) Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is bringing the Senate back in the middle of a pandemic to appoint Justin Walker, an unqualified judicial nominee described as a “McConnell protege.” There are...

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  • May 5, 2020
/ 2016 / 2020 / 2020election / 538 / Belief / biden / Blue / Book / Business / Campaign / CDC / Clinton / College / Crazy / crowds / Culture / Cuomo / Data / Death / Democrat / Democrats / Donald / Donald Trump / Economic / Election / Florida / Future / General / GOTV / Governor / Hair / highlights / Hillary / Hillary Clinton / Ideas / Information / Islam / Joe / Mail / Maine / Media / Messonier / Michigan / Minnesota / Money / Nancy / Nature / Navy / Nevada / new york / New York Times / Nobel / Peace / Pennsylvania / Politics / Poll / Polling / Polls / POTUS / Power / predictionmarkets / President / Presidential / Press / Race / Republican / Republicans / Responsibility / State / Target / Thinking / Trade / Trump / unknown / Vice President / Vote / vote-by-mail / Voters / Washington / Washington Post / WashingtonPost / WhiteHouse / Wisconsin

fools and their money: Trump leads Biden 50/44 in the betting markets

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RCP has Trump over Biden 49.9 / 42.0. Even if you don’t wager, at present 538 thinks Trump remains dependent on an Electoral College win. It’s still about GOTV, despite all the impending constraints like vote-by-mail. Cautionary tails are being chased. This data highlights a few things. First, at least...

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  • May 2, 2020
/ 2020PresidentialPolls / 538 / Americans / biden / COVID / Covid-19 / Election / Florida / History / March / Michigan / NewJersey / NewMexico / News / NewYork / NorthCarolina / Ohio / Pandemic / Podcast / Politics / Poll / Polls / President / Registration / RV / Shock / State / Trump / Vote / Voter / Voters / Voting

State Poll Summary: Biden Leads, But Swing States Are Still Close

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… A number of recent state polls have been released over the past week and almost all have good news for Biden. The bump Trump got in his approval in March is now history, in fact a Morning Consult Poll shows Trump’s rating of his handling of the pandemic has...

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  • April 28, 2020
/ 2020 / Authority / CNN / CoronaVirus / Covid-19 / covidtaskforcebriefing / Culture / Cut / Death / Decision / Doctors / Economy / Federal / Funding / God / Governors / Happy / Health / HealthCare / Hope / House / Media / Medical / Nursing / opening / p / Pandemic / PublicHealth / Rant / testing / tracking / Trade / Trump / Twitter / White House / World

welcome to unhingery: Trump says “Staying at home leads to death.”

Trump is implying he’s saved millions of lives since the death toll won’t be 2.2 million and is so willing to restart the economy that he claims that “Staying at home leads to death”. x Trump says it's true that opening up could lead to death, but: “Staying at home...

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  • April 10, 2020
/ 2016 / 2020 / 2020election / Activism / Americans / Ballots / Base / Bernie / Bernie Sanders / BernieSanders / biden / Change / Clinton / CNBC / Convention / Courage / COVID / COVID19 / Culture / Distance / Election / General / GOP / GOTV / Government / Harris / Inequality / Ipsos / Mail / Media / Message / moral / p / Party / Poll / Polling / Polls / President / Primary / Progressive / Quinnipiac / Republic / Republicans / sanders / SCOTUS / State / Terror / Thinking / Trump / Twitter / Vote / warren / WhiteHouse / Wisconsin / YouGov

My primary vote still went to Bernie but November will belong to Biden (who leads all polls)

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Even as I started as a Harris supporter, and then went to Warren and now to Sanders, the goal remains the same. GOTV That goal remains the same in spite of the Sanders suspension of campaigning. It is not like 2016 as much as GOP magical thinking might be projected by Trump....

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  • April 8, 2020
/ 2016 / 2020 / 2020election / Ballot / Bernie / Bernie Sanders / biden / Bloomberg / buttigieg / California / Campaigns / Candidate / Candidates / caught / Colorado / Convention / Culture / Data / Delegates / Economist / Election / Elizabeth Warren / GOP / HealthCare / Impeachment / Ipsos / Jobs / Joe / klobuchar / Latinx / March / Media / NBC / new york / New York Times / News / p / Poll / Polls / Primaries / Primary / projections / REAL / Response / Reuters / sanders / Scandal / State / SuperTuesday / Texas / Trump / Twitter / Ukraine / Utah / Vote / Voters / Voting / warren / YouGov / Youth

super-Tuesday moves clarity forward as Biden now leads in delegates

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Weird night as Jill Biden tackled a protester on stage in California and voters waited over 5 hours to vote in Texas. Had Trump not gotten caught shaking down Ukraine, he might have won the 2020 election like 2016. Because of the GOP’s Biden(s) vitriol, the Arms for Dirt scandal and its subsequent impeachment may...

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  • March 4, 2020
/ 2020 / 2020election / 538 / AARP / Bernie / Bernie Sanders / biden / buttigieg / Campaign / Candidate / Convention / Culture / Delegates / Democrats / Election / Elizabeth Warren / Ideology / Indiana / Intelligence / Iowa / Joe / klobuchar / Latino / Mayor / Media / Moderates / MSM / Nevada / News / Nightmare / Opinion / Poll / Polling / Polls / President / Primary / Race / RealClearPolitics / Republican / sanders / State / steyer / Trump / Vice President / Voters / Voting / warren

In 538's opinion, Up for Grabs still leads

Darn that reactionary uncertainty being the dominant feature of moderates’ ideology. Despite MSM’s spinning about Sanders and Buttigieg, FiveThirtyEight claims that no momentum was had from the first two primary campaign events. Three days after the New Hampshire primary, we are finally getting some polls that reflect the new state of...

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  • February 16, 2020
/ 2020 / 2020election / AltRight / Americans / BlueWave / Budget / Campaign / Congress / Corporations / Cut / Defense / Deficit / Democrats / Donald / Donald Trump / DonaldTrump / e / EdMarkey / Election / Election2020 / Families / Fight / give / giveaway / GOP / Health / Health Care / Help / Mail / Medicare / Republicans / Retirement / Rich / Safety / Security / Tax / Trump / Wealthy

MA-Sen: Sen. Ed Markey (D) Leads The Fight Against Trump's Cuts To Social Security & Medicare

Received this e-mail today from U.S. Senator Ed Markey’s (D. MA) re-election campaign: Donald Trump released his proposed budget yesterday, and it once again put his disdain for the most vulnerable Americans on full display. His budget is immoral, indefensible, and unacceptable. Donald Trump is proposing cuts to critical programs...

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  • February 11, 2020
/ 2018 / 2019 / 2020 / 2020 elections / 2020election / 46 / Ads / Army / Austin / Bernie / Bernie Sanders / biden / Bloomberg / BlueWave / buttigieg / Campaign / Candidate / Candidates / carter / Challenge / Choice / Congress / Congressional / Congressman / Cooper / Cornyn / Dallas / Data / Democrat / Democrats / Donald / Donald Trump / DonaldTrump / Donate / Donations / Donors / effort / Election / Election2020 / Elections / Elizabeth Warren / Energy / focus / Fundraiser / Fundraising / GOP / GOTV / Grassroots / Harris / Houston / Hunter / Joe / John / JohnCornyn / klobuchar / Labor / Losing / Mayor / Media / mike bloomberg / Money / new york / News / Poll / Polling / Polls / President / Presidential / Primaries / Primary / Race / Ramirez / Republican / Rock / sanders / Senate / State / Strength / Texas / Trump / TX-Sen / UPS / Veteran / Vice President / Vote / Voters / warren

TX-Sen: MJ Hegar (D) Leads In Both Polling & Fundraising In The Democratic Primary

Here’s some more news out of Texas: On Wednesday, Texas Lyceum released results from its 14th annual poll, identifying Texans' views on the 2020 elections and primaries. Pollsters surveyed 1,000 adults from Texas via telephone. The results show former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders are essentially tied to win the Democratic presidential nomination among...

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  • January 30, 2020
/ 2019 / 2020 / 2020election / 538 / America / Belief / Bernie / Bernie Sanders / biden / Bloomberg / books / buttigieg / Candidate / Candidates / Change / Culture / Dead / Death / Debate / Democrats / Donald / Donald Trump / effort / Election / Elizabeth Warren / Empathy / Failure / Favorability / greatness / Grief / Hunter / Inequality / Injustice / Ipsos / Joe / klobuchar / Massachusetts / Mayor / Media / Minnesota / New Jersey / new york / NPR / Pain / PBS / Politics / Poll / Polling / Positive / Power / President / Public / REAL / Relationship / Renewal / sanders / sigh / Trump / Twitter / Ukraine / Vermont / Vice President / Voters / warren

Biden still leads polling and the center breathes a sigh of relief

538 declared Biden the winner of the last debate, and Morning Consult’s poll of 5000 shows Biden ahead. x Biden received the highest marks from the debate, but his high pre-debate favorability rating means we expected a lot of voters to be predisposed to viewing his debate performance in a...

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  • December 23, 2019
46 / AndyBeshear / Bevin / Blow / Campaign / Candidate / Candidates / Congressional / Democrat / Donald / Donald Trump / Election / General / Governor / Governors / History / Impeachment / JimHood / Kentucky / MattBevin / Mississippi / October / Poll / Race / Republican / Republicans / TateReeves / Trial / Trump / Voters

Democrat Beshear Leads for KY Governor; MS Race IS Close

static1.squarespace.com/… Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear has a sizeable lead in the Kentucky Governor’s race against unpopular Republican incumbent Governor Matt Bevin. According to a poll released by PollSmart MR, Beshear leads Bevin 50% to 32% among registered voters and 54% to 33% among likely voters. When leaners are added...

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  • October 24, 2019
/ 2019 / 2020 / Bernie / Bernie Sanders / BernieSanders / biden / Campaign / Candidates / Caucus / Data / Democrats / Donald / Donald Trump / Elizabeth Warren / ElizabethWarren / Harris / HypotheticalPolling / Joe / JoeBiden / KamalaHarris / Poll / Polling / Polls / Presidential / Primary / Progressive / Rasmussen / sanders / Scott / Trump / Warning / warren

Breakthrough poll for Elizabeth Warren: she LEADS in two hypothetical head-to-head primary matchups!

Before I begin, I should note that there are two major caveats to the polling data that I’m about to share: The pollster that conducted this poll, HarrisX/Scott Rasmussen (note that HarrisX/Scott Rasmussen is a different pollster than Rasmussen Reports), is a right-leaning pollster: for example, their polling on Donald...

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  • May 30, 2019
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