Cook Reports Changes Arizona to “Lean Biden”; Two Polls Today Show Small Biden Lead in AZ…

Monmouth University Poll gives Joe Biden a 2% edge in Arizona among likely voters but says the race is tied under a lower turnout scenario. Biden leads Trump 48% to 46% with higher turnout, and they are tied at 47% each with lower turnout.

The poll says Trump has a lead of 51% to 39% among white voters and that Biden is getting the support of Hispanics in Arizona by 63% to 33%. However, there is some reasons to be concerned about Hispanic turnout.

Monmouth, which is rated as an A+ pollster by 538, also gives Democrat Senate candidate Kelly a 50% to 44% over McSally.

On two ballot measures, there is wide support among Arizona voters to approve a 3.5% income tax surcharge on wealthy taxpayers. As far as legalizing marijuana, voters support the measure by 49% to 43% if there is a high turnout, but the measure is tied at 47% with low turnout.…

The Kaiser Family Foundation also has a poll out for the Grand Canyon State which gives Biden a lead of 45% to 40% for Trump. The KFF is working with the Cook Political Report on the 2020 election. Its poll is not rated by 538.…

While speaking of the Cook Political Report, it has changed its rating for the presidential race in Arizona from “Tossup” to “Lean Biden”. In the 538 polling average for Arizona, Biden has a 5% lead.

Trump and Biden are essentially tied in Florida (Trump 42%, Biden's 43%) and NC (Trump 43%, Biden 45%). However, in Arizona, Biden has opened up a more substantial lead (Biden 45%, Trump 40%). A Biden win in Arizona would mean that he could afford to lose Michigan or Wisconsin (two of “Blue Wall” consortium) and still eke out an Electoral College win (assuming that he wins all the states Hillary Clinton carried in 2016). Biden could even afford to lose Pennsylvania and still win the Electoral College with a combination of Arizona and Nebraska's 2nd CD.

How did Arizona go from being a leading Tea Party state to one that will likely elect its second Democratic senator?…

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