A number of swing states or potential swing states have recent polls showing tighter than expected races in some Republican districts, including some incumbents. A poor showing by a congressional candidate can have some impact for that state’s Presidential or Senate elections, at least for states that having really close elections. Most of these polls are by partisan…
Category: Michigan
Cook Report Moves 2 US House Races to Tossup, AZ CD-6 and MO CD-2
twitter.com/… Cook Political Report has changed its ratings on five US House races, four in the direction of the Democratic candidate. Kansas CD-2 became more likely to remain Republican after incumbent Steve Watkins-R lost his primary. Watkins was charged with voter fraud after he listed a UPS store as his official residence. David Schweikert of Arizona’s…
Republican “Message Testing” Poll Ends Up Showing Biden Strength in Michigan and Wisconsin
A Hodas & Associates Poll, just released, shows Joe Biden with big leads in Michigan and Wisconsin and a smaller lead in Pennsylvania despite apparently being designed to damage Biden and Democrats by asking leading questions. politicalwire.com New battleground polls from Hodas & Associates, a Republican polling firm: Michigan: Biden 53%, Trump 41% Pennsylvania: Biden 51%,…
Politico: Some Trump Supporters Say They May Not Vote If a Ballot Arrives by Mail
Politico has a very interesting article on how Trump’s campaign to cast doubt on the legitimacy of voting by mail may end up destroying any chance Republicans could win. http://www.politico.com/… New private polling shared first with POLITICO showed that Republicans have become overwhelmingly concerned about mail balloting, which Trump has claimed, without evidence, will lead…
State Poll Summary: Surveys From 18 States, Biden Has Georgia on the Mind
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… The last couple of days has provided a smorgasbord of state polling, including a number of states that are seldom surveyed. Recent Presidential State Polls State Date Pollster/Rating Biden Trump Trump Margin Trump 2016 AK 7/24 PPP B 44% 50% +6% +15.2% AZ 7/26 Morn. Con. B/C 49% 42%…
State Poll Summary: Surveys From 19 States, Biden Has Georgia on the Mind
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… The last couple of days has provided a smorgasbord of state polling, including a number of states that are seldom surveyed. Recent Presidential State Polls State Date Pollster/Rating Biden Trump Trump Margin Trump 2016 AK 7/24 PPP B 44% 50% +6% +15.2% AZ 7/26 Morn. Con. B/C 49% 42%…
Only 32% Approve of Trump's Handling of Pandemic
apnews.com/… Public approval of Donald Trump’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic continues its death glide, according to a survey by The Associated Press-NORC Poll. It is so sad that it takes the deaths of thousands of Americans each week to convince Trump’s devoted followers to abandon him. The poll finds that currently of 32% of voters support the President’s attempts at…
Quinnipiac: Biden Has 13% Lead in Florida; Fox Poll: Biden Has Major Leads in PA, MI, and MN
poll.qu.edu/… The Quinnipiac University Poll has just released a survey showing Joe Biden leading Trump by 51% to 38% in Florida, one of the largest swing states. The last time Quinnipiac polled Florida was in April when Biden had a 4% lead. Website 538 rates Quinnipiac as a B+ pollster. aarp-states.brightspotcdn.com/… Earlier today, St. Pete Polls…
State Poll Summary: Biden Holds 10% Margin; McConnell Only Leads by 4% in KY
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… The year 2020 has been quite a year, and we are only about half way through. It is 110 days until the election and less than six weeks until the first absentee votes are cast. Trump is in trouble, but his polling isn’t getting worse as fast as the pandemic is spreading, at least if…
State Poll Summary: Trump Keeps Digging a Deeper Hole
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… Most state polling and national averages are showing Joe Biden is maintaining a lead over Trump around eight points better than Hillary Clinton received in 2016, a 10% lead overall. According to website 538, Trump’s approval rate average is 40.4% with a disapproval of 55.8%, -15.4%. This is the worst for Trump since February 2019….
State Poll Summary: Three Pollsters Release Numbers That Will Give Republicans Major Headaches
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… Three separate pollsters released swing state polls today that might give Republicans serious health issues. The Sienna/New York Times Poll, Hodas and Associates, and Redfield and Wilton Strategies all released state polls, some of which are surprising positive for Joe Biden, especially Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Presidential State Polls with Pollsters Ratings by 538 State…
State Poll Summary: Four Pollsters Release Numbers That Will Give Republicans Major Headaches
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… Four separate pollsters released swing state polls today that might give Republicans serious health issues. The Sienna/New York Times Poll, Fox News Poll, Hodas and Associates, and Redfield and Wilton Strategies all released state polls, some of which are surprising positive for Joe Biden, especially Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Presidential State Polls with Pollsters Ratings…
State Poll Summary: Trump Slump Continues
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… The two major national polls released today are Quinnipiac which shows Biden with an 8% lead and the Fox News Poll which has Biden with a 12% lead. An average of 10% seems about right and mostly agrees with the state polls. Website 538 shows Trump’s average approval looking at many polls is 41.4% versus…
Michigan MAGAs burn their own absentee ballot applications to own the libs
I have to admit, this is a strategy that never occurred to me: burning your own absentee ballot application to protest too much voting by the other side. This should become a national movement. Show them what you’re made of, Trump fans. You’re no fools! So, yeah, Grand Rapids, Michigan, MAGAs were apparently sent into a rage over…
State Poll Summary: Consensus to Fire Trump Is Building
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… Donald Trump can’t get no respect these days. The coronavirus won’t disappear as he said it would, and CNN won’t retract their national poll saying he’s 14 points behind Biden. To top that off, the Dow Jones Industrial stock index dropped 1861 (-6.9%) points today when Wall Street suddenly discovered we are in a recession….
State Poll Summary: Is Trump's Base Starting to Crack?
The New York Times reports that the Trump campaign is deeply worried about their candidate’s internal polls, and if they are anything like the publicly available polls, one can see why. National polls still show Joe Biden leading by seven or eight points on average though some of the higher quality polls are starting to…
Polls, Damned Polls, and Probabilities because Trump's negging us with strange polling
What is wrong with these polls? Is Trump disinforming himself to make himself feel better (by reading Breitbart). Is Trump negging us by using an old poll right after doing his “first post-shutdown” mini-rally in Michigan? Today, Trump decided to cite a week-old 14 May Hannity page where a “poll conducted by SSRS of 15 battleground states…
State Polling Summary: Hitting the Fan Edition
This week pollsters have fed us a fair size helping of state polls. Most of which should give Republicans heartburn. The only good poll for Trump is a Hodas and Associates poll showing Trump four points ahead in Pennsylvania, but you can explain that by the breakdown, 43.2% Republican to 36.7% Democratic, in that particular survey. Six other polls…
Michigan's Man of the Year threatens funding to Michigan while floods hit a Michigan town
Trump: “I was honored as the Man of the Year in Michigan… 5 or 6 years before I even thought about running for President.” x Here's my old fact check about “Man of the Year in Michigan.” Former GOP Rep. Dave Trott called me up to solve the mystery of what Trump is probably talking…
Michigan Secretary of State Destroys Trump's Claim on Mailing Absentee Applications
Michigan’s Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson tweeted a response to Trump’s claim that mailing out absentee ballot applications to all voters is illegal, pointing out that a number of Republican states are doing the same thing for the primaries. Trump has threatened to withhold federal election funding from Michigan and Nevada over their attempts to…
