projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
Almost everybody has gotten into the act today, bringing out a national presidential poll. Biden leads them all, but some readers might want to see how they compare.
| Pollster | 538 rating | Biden | Trump | Margin | |
| Seltzer & Co. | A+ | 49 | 41 | 8 | |
| Suffolk | A | 50 | 43 | 7 | |
| IBD/TIPP | A/B | 49 | 41 | 8 | |
| Quinnipiac | B+ | 52 | 42 | 10 | |
| YouGov | B | 51 | 40 | 11 | |
| Morn. Consult | B/C | 51 | 43 | 8 | |
| CNN/SSRS | B/C | 51 | 43 | 8 | |
| USC/Dornsife | B/C | 51 | 42 | 9 | |
| Ipsos | B- | 47 | 40 | 7 | |
| Rasmussen | C+ | 49 | 45 | 4 | |
| Harris X | C | 46 | 40 | 6 |
Two unrated pollsters released surveys as well. Opinium has Biden leading by 13 points, and Qriously has Biden ahead by 5%.
The aftermath of the conventions basically showed that Biden had a bump of 0 to 1% but improved has favorable ratings by about 5%. Trump’s convention produced a 2% bump but little or no improvement in his favorable ratings.
Convention bounces almost always fade after a week. So to whatever extent these polls are measuring some improvement for Trump because of his convention, it will likely be gone next week.
Improved favorable ratings for Biden may improve Democratic turnout.
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