projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… The top rated pollster Siena College/NYT Upshot gives Joe Biden a 17% lead in Maine, a 9% lead in Arizona, and a 1% edge in North Carolina. The polls were taken September 11-17 (10-16 for AZ) from likely voters by Siena, which is rated A+ by 538. Siena/NYT Upshot Poll Biden Trump Arizona 49% 40%…
Category: Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is Key to Victory
538 has a new web page up, 2020 Election Forecast, which shows the current state of vote predictions state by state, and is updated daily. It starts with 24 maps showing the combination of states that give either candidate a win. Right now, there are 5 winning combinations for Trump and 19 for Biden. Further…
Early Voting Means We Need Early Counting
No question, the November election is shaping up to be a unique one. Between the pandemic, the sabotage of the Postal Service (and have you thanked a postal employee today? I have), the fear of longer lines at the fewer polling places, lots and lots of voters are planning to mail their ballots in as…
Polls Show Some Republican House Seats Surprisingly Competitive in Swing States
A number of swing states or potential swing states have recent polls showing tighter than expected races in some Republican districts, including some incumbents. A poor showing by a congressional candidate can have some impact for that state’s Presidential or Senate elections, at least for states that having really close elections. Most of these polls are by partisan…
Republican “Message Testing” Poll Ends Up Showing Biden Strength in Michigan and Wisconsin
A Hodas & Associates Poll, just released, shows Joe Biden with big leads in Michigan and Wisconsin and a smaller lead in Pennsylvania despite apparently being designed to damage Biden and Democrats by asking leading questions. politicalwire.com New battleground polls from Hodas & Associates, a Republican polling firm: Michigan: Biden 53%, Trump 41% Pennsylvania: Biden 51%,…
Politico: Some Trump Supporters Say They May Not Vote If a Ballot Arrives by Mail
Politico has a very interesting article on how Trump’s campaign to cast doubt on the legitimacy of voting by mail may end up destroying any chance Republicans could win. http://www.politico.com/… New private polling shared first with POLITICO showed that Republicans have become overwhelmingly concerned about mail balloting, which Trump has claimed, without evidence, will lead…
Quinnipiac: Biden Has 13% Lead in Florida; Fox Poll: Biden Has Major Leads in PA, MI, and MN
poll.qu.edu/… The Quinnipiac University Poll has just released a survey showing Joe Biden leading Trump by 51% to 38% in Florida, one of the largest swing states. The last time Quinnipiac polled Florida was in April when Biden had a 4% lead. Website 538 rates Quinnipiac as a B+ pollster. aarp-states.brightspotcdn.com/… Earlier today, St. Pete Polls…
Cook Report Moves Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to Lean Democrat, Biden leading with 279 EV
cookpolitical.com/… Cook Political Report is shifting its ratings of the key states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania from “Tossup” to “Lean Democrat”. Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district is also moved to “Lean Democrat” and Georgia is now a considered a “Tossup” state. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska’s 2nd district move from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. Maine, once in Lean Democrat, moves to the…
Denial Don talks about a COVID “99% survival rate” as RWNJs worry about burning flags at Gettysburg
The problem of Trumpian logic and math is that epidemiology has too many syllables. A “99% US survival rate” for Trump is the rhetorical acceptability of a million deaths. The weeks have become even more absurd as the election approaches. That 99% meme accompanies attempts on Twitter to convince people that masks are a health risk, much…
Larry Sabato Shifts Ratings on 11 US House Races, “10 Texas Seats Could Be Vulnerable”
In a move somewhat reminiscent of 2018’s blue wave in US House elections, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted ratings on 10 US House away from the Republican candidates and has moved one Democratic seat in the other direction. Four of the ones shifted today are GOP seats in Texas. centerforpolitics.org/… Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old…
State Poll Summary: Three Pollsters Release Numbers That Will Give Republicans Major Headaches
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… Three separate pollsters released swing state polls today that might give Republicans serious health issues. The Sienna/New York Times Poll, Hodas and Associates, and Redfield and Wilton Strategies all released state polls, some of which are surprising positive for Joe Biden, especially Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Presidential State Polls with Pollsters Ratings by 538 State…
State Poll Summary: Four Pollsters Release Numbers That Will Give Republicans Major Headaches
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… Four separate pollsters released swing state polls today that might give Republicans serious health issues. The Sienna/New York Times Poll, Fox News Poll, Hodas and Associates, and Redfield and Wilton Strategies all released state polls, some of which are surprising positive for Joe Biden, especially Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Presidential State Polls with Pollsters Ratings…
Polls, Damned Polls, and Probabilities because Trump's negging us with strange polling
What is wrong with these polls? Is Trump disinforming himself to make himself feel better (by reading Breitbart). Is Trump negging us by using an old poll right after doing his “first post-shutdown” mini-rally in Michigan? Today, Trump decided to cite a week-old 14 May Hannity page where a “poll conducted by SSRS of 15 battleground states…
Today, Trump-time announces “strategic national stockpile 2.0“ because the “cupboard was dry”
Trump’s going to Allentown for another photo-op rather than actually doing his job. “Well, we’re living here in AllentownAnd they’re closing all the factories downOut in Bethlehem, they’re killing timeFilling out formsStanding in line.” More Trump nonsense as Trump does a stunt like in Arizona — perhaps he’ll wear only safety glasses again and have “Live…
Renewable Energy Surges Past Coal in Production of US Electricity
The New York Times reports that renewable energy sources including wind and solar power are now regularly outproducing coal fired electric power plants in the United States. Just 10 years ago, almost 50 percent of electricity came from coal but lower costs are now driving up renewables and increasing making coal the dirty fuel of a…
The DNC Boosts The Pennsylvania Democratic Party's Vote-By-Mail Campaign
Received this e-mail from the Pennsylvania Democratic Party: Today we launched a campaign with @PADems to text over 400,000 voters and encourage vote-by-mail. This is just a part of our expansion of our digital organizing efforts to talk to voters during these unprecedented times and work to make sure Donald Trump is a one-term president….
Fox News Poll Has Joe Biden Beating Trump In Pennsylvania 50-42
Latest news out Pennsylvania courtesy of Fox News’ latest poll: With most Pennsylvania voters concerned about catching coronavirus and nearly six-in-ten believing the Trump administration was too slow to act, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in that battleground state. Biden is preferred over Trump by 8 percentage points (50-42 percent), according to a Fox News…
Meat Packing Towns Are Hotspots for Virus Endangering Workers and Food Supply
http://www.bloomberg.com/… (April 17) Meat packing centers in the Midwest are some of the fastest growing pandemic centers, according to Bloomberg News, the New York Times, and other news media. Workers in some plants complain about close working conditions and lack of protective equipment. Industry analysts see supply disruptions and higher prices. Fortunately, the food supply is not thought…
Refusing To Be Like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania Democrats Help Voters Sign Up For Mail-In-Ballots
Received this e-mail today from the Pennsylvania Democratic Party: The Republican Party is using a global pandemic to suppress the vote everywhere they can. In Pennsylvania… Speaker Mike Turzai flagrantly put voters and democracy at risk when he forced special elections to take place amidst social distancing last month. In Wisconsin… Republicans fought all the…
Trump May Aid Oil Fracking Companies Facing Bankruptcy
Two years ago the United States became the world’s largest petroleum producer due to oil extracted by fracking oil shale deposits. Monday, the oil fracking boom came to an end as petroleum prices plunged 30% when Russia and Saudi Arabia entered into a oil price war. http://www.nytimes.com/… Crude lost as much as a third of its…
