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Do polls undercount Trump support like COVID deaths

3 min read
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The strangest thing is the GOP attempt to con the nation into forgetting about a massive and avoidable death toll.  

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In polling, there’s still too much horse-racing as “gap-tightening” memes abound on the most boring night of the RNC. The reality is likely different, much like the determination of the Trump campaign to frame America as 1968 cultural chaos.

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— Ezra Klein (@ezraklein) August 27, 2020

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— Steve Schmidt (@SteveSchmidtSES) August 27, 2020

Steve Schmidt says polls undercount Trump support, But the Hill insists there are even more “shy” Trump voters.

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— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) August 26, 2020

One of the GOP founders of the anti-Trump group The Lincoln Project said Wednesday that polls undercount the level of support that exists for President Trump.

“It is historically difficult to defeat an incumbent president, No. 1,” Steve Schmidt, a former adviser to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), told Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC. “I suspect there is at least a point or two of undercount for Trump voters.”

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a healthy lead in national polls. Biden has smaller leads in most of the six core battleground states, although recent surveys have found the race is tightening.

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The polling outlet Trafalgar Group, which was the only pollster to show Trump ahead in Michigan on Election Day in 2016, seeks to account for this so-called social desirability effect in its polls. The lead pollster there has told The Hill there are more “silent” Trump voters in 2020 than there were in 2016.

thehill.com/…

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— Aaron Astor (@AstorAaron) August 26, 2020

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— Rachel “The Doc” Bitecofer 📈🔭🍌 (@RachelBitecofer) August 25, 2020

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— Robert Reich (@RBReich) August 26, 2020

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— Citizens for Ethics (@CREWcrew) August 27, 2020

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