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Rampant GOP dickishness. Kushner also said his father-in-law “basically did a full hostile takeover of the Republican Party.” The next week is going to be very stressful, be patient, regardless of the outcome. "Three weeks in, Joe is shot, let's go Kamala, are you ready?" pic.twitter.com/qgMVQ3ekI1 — Andrew Feinberg (@AndrewFeinberg) October...

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  • October 29, 2020

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… Morning Consult is waking us up this morning  with a number of great state polls, with the Arizona poll being about the only one that’s not great. The polls were taken October 11-20 of likely voters. This pollster is rated B/C by 538. State Presidential Polls 10/22 from Morning Consult State...

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  • October 22, 2020

In a day full of polls, Fox News adds to the stack of largely favorable surveys for Joe Biden. These polls of likely voters were taken October 17-20; 538 rates Fox News Poll as A-. Presidential Polls published 10/21 (after 4 p.m.) ST. Pollster/Rating Biden Trump Others Trump 16 MI Fox...

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  • October 21, 2020

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… It’s nearly all plus signs for Joe Biden in today’s state polls. The forecast from 538 has Biden with a 87% of winning and a 10% national lead (some of today’s national polls are quite Republican). Being tied at 47% in Texas is a great achievement for the Biden campaign. poll.qu.edu/…...

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  • October 21, 2020

http://www.nytimes.com/… The NYT/Siena Poll, rated A+ by 538, shows Biden and Trump tied at 45%. Georgia was won by Trump in 2016 by 5.3%. http://www.msn.com/… A shift against President Trump among white college-educated voters in Georgia has imperiled Republicans up and down the ballot, according to a New York Times/Siena...

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  • October 20, 2020

news.yahoo.com/… The Yahoo News/YouGov poll, rated “B” by 538, shows Joe Biden taking his biggest lead yet at 51% to 40% among likely voters surveyed October 16-18. The president has struggled to rebound over the past three weeks from a widely panned first debate performance and a COVID-19 outbreak that sent...

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  • October 19, 2020

dougjones.com/… An Internal Poll has Democratic Senator Doug Jones at 48% in the Alabama Senate Race against 47% for Republican Tommy Tuberville.  The poll was taken October 11-14 of 801 likely Alabama voters. Website 538 rates the pollster, FM3 research as B/C. The margin of error is 3.5%. Jones is...

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  • October 17, 2020

int.nyt.com/… The NYT/Siena Poll, rated A+ by 538, shows Joe Biden with a 46% to 42% lead over Trump in North Carolina with minor party candidates taking 4% of the vote.  Meanwhile, Democratic candidate for Senate, Cal Cunningham, leads Republican incumbent Thom Tillis by 41% to 37%, with 7% going...

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  • October 14, 2020

At WaPo, Phillip Bump throws more cold water on our optimism, but we all need to be confronted with the probabilities. Try Bump’s interactive tools to convince yourself of the quantitative realities. There will be Senate-flipping and a Biden landslide, but there still and always remain possible bad news. James Carville...

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  • October 13, 2020

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… The NYT/Siena Poll, rated A+ by 538, has Joe Biden with a 48% to 40% lead in Michigan and a 51% to 41% lead in Wisconsin. The polls are of likely voters and were taken October 8-11. New polls show Biden is gaining in the Northern battlegrounds among white...

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  • October 12, 2020

Still about reality checks, considering that its still about GOTV and 3 November. Note that RCP is now showing a slight lead for Trump of +0.6% in some swing states, comparing 2020 and 2016. Things are different now especially with the candidates and pandemic constraints, but there are always potential bad signs...

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  • October 10, 2020

http://www.cnn.com/… A newly released Poll by CNN shows Joe Biden leading Trump 57% to 41% among likely voters nationally. The poll was taken October first through the fourth. The last head to head survey by CNN/SSRS was taken August 28 through September 1 and had Biden leading 51% to 43%. It...

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  • October 6, 2020

Beto O’Rourke, who narrowly lost to Ted Cruz for Texas’s Senate seat in 2018, and Tory Gavito, cofounder of Way to Win, have an op-ed in today’s WaPo urging Biden to fight for Texas’s 38 EVs: Joe Biden can end the drama on election night. All he has to do...

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  • October 4, 2020

The NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll, rated A- by 538, has Joe Biden leading Trump 53% to 39%. The poll of registered voters was taken September 30 through October 1 after Tuesday’s debate but before Trump’s positive test for Coronavirus was made public. assets.documentcloud.org/… Joe Biden’s national lead over President Donald Trump...

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  • October 4, 2020

thehill.com/… The CNBC/Change Research Poll shows Joe Biden with the support of 54% of likely voters compared to 41% for Trump. Only 29% of voters thought Trump performed better in the first debated compared to 53% for Biden. Still, the debate doesn’t appear to have had a significant impact on...

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  • October 1, 2020

thehill.com/… The CNBC/Change Research Poll shows Joe Biden with the support of 54% of likely voters compared to 41% for Trump. Only 29% of voters thought Trump performed better in the first debated compared to 53% for Biden. Still, the debate doesn’t appear to have had a significant impact on...

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  • October 1, 2020

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… After what is generally characterized as the worse debate among presidential contenders ever, 538 shows slight movement toward Joe Biden. We once again partnered with Ipsos to track how the debate affected Americans’ views of the election, using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel to interview the same group of people both before and after...

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  • September 30, 2020

http://www.langerresearch.com/.… The ABC News/Washington Post Poll, rated A+, has Joe Biden leading Trump 54% to 45% in the critical state of Pennsylvania. Monday afternoon, the NYT/Siena College Poll, also rated A+ by 538, gave Biden a margin of 49% to 40%. A third poll by Fox News published September 24,...

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  • September 29, 2020

int.nyt.com/… According to a New York Times/Siena College poll, 59% of likely American voters support granting statehood to the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, while 20% were opposed and 15% were undecided or gave no answer. The survey taken September 22 to 24 comes from the pollster rated A+...

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  • September 27, 2020

An even more desperate Trump is on the golf course today, and the polling results are even more baked in.  x After accusing Biden of being on drugs and Bloomberg of bribery, calling for the impeachment of a senator, repeating his usual vague insinuations about ballots and his usual vague...

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  • September 27, 2020

x WOW!!! The dictator went to the Supreme Court just now. Listen to the response as they shout. VOTE HIM OUT!!! VOTE HIM OUT!!! VOTE HIM OUT!!! pic.twitter.com/9AIcu4IcHg — Fred Guttenberg (@fred_guttenberg) September 24, 2020 x President Trump on boos at Supreme Court: “That was just a political chant —...

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  • September 25, 2020

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… static.foxnews.com/… Fox News Poll just came out with some great numbers for Joe Biden. All at 50%+ and very few undecideds.                                       Biden                   ...

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  • September 24, 2020

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… National Polls released today by Quinnipiac University (rated B+), Marquette University (rated A/B), and USC Dornsife (rated  B/C), and Politico (B/C) each give Joe Biden a lead of 10% against Trump.   poll.qu.edu/… “Voters think Biden is smarter, more honest, more level headed, and cares more about Americans than the...

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  • September 23, 2020

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… While website 538 shows a small improvement in Joe Biden’s national polling average over the last few days from 6.6% on September 17 to 7.1% today, an ABC News/Washington Post Poll (rated A+) shows Trump taking slight leads in AZ and FL among likely voters. The ABC Poll has Trump leading...

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  • September 23, 2020

floridapolitics.com/… St Pete Polls has released a survey showing Joe Biden is tied in Florida’s 18th Congressional District. The 18th which is an east coast district just north of Ft Lauderdale gave Trump a 9 point margin in 2016 and has a PVI of R +5. Trump only won the state of...

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  • September 20, 2020

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… The top rated pollster Siena College/NYT Upshot gives Joe Biden a 17% lead in Maine, a 9% lead in Arizona, and a 1% edge in North Carolina. The polls were taken September 11-17 (10-16 for AZ) from likely voters by Siena, which is rated A+ by 538. Siena/NYT Upshot Poll...

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  • September 18, 2020

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… The top rated pollster Siena College/NYT Upshot gives Joe Biden a 17% lead in Maine, a 9% lead in Arizona, and a 1% edge in North Carolina. The polls were taken September 11-17 (10-16 for AZ) from likely voters by Siena, which is rated A+ by 538. Siena/NYT Upshot Poll...

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  • September 18, 2020

http://www.monmouth.edu/… Monmouth University Poll gives Joe Biden a 2% edge in Arizona among likely voters but says the race is tied under a lower turnout scenario. Biden leads Trump 48% to 46% with higher turnout, and they are tied at 47% each with lower turnout. The poll says Trump has...

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  • September 17, 2020

http://www.monmouth.edu/… Monmouth University Poll gives Joe Biden a 2% edge in Arizona among likely voters but says the race is tied under a lower turnout scenario. Biden leads Trump 48% to 46% with higher turnout, and they are tied at 47% each with lower turnout. The poll says Trump has...

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  • September 17, 2020

poll.qu.edu/… Quinnipiac has polls for three high profile US Senate races. Two Republicans are in big trouble. New Quinnipiac polls of several interesting U.S. Senate races: Maine: Sarah Gideon (D) 54%, Susan Collins (R) 42% South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) 48%, Jaime Harrison (D) 48% Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) 53%, Amy McGrath...

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  • September 16, 2020

Several state polls released this afternoon show the Biden campaign doing fairly well in a number of key states. http://www.monmouth.edu/… Monmouth University Poll gives Joe Biden a 50% to 45% lead in Florida among likely voters under a high turnout scenario. With a lower turnout, Biden’s lead shrinks to 49%...

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  • September 15, 2020

Joe Biden’s Presidential campaign, flush with cash and lifted by polls that show that Texas is essentially tied, is hiring on 13 more staff members. http://www.texastribune.org/… The Democratic nominee’s latest hires, shared first with The Texas Tribune, include several experienced Democratic operatives from the state. They include Dallas Jones, a Houston...

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  • September 15, 2020

This 538 analysis does explain the strange Trump tactical moves to Nevada and Minnesota, as they see their secondary targets instead of their main swing state targets. We can count on the race tightening and the margins are closer in the swing states. We’ve moved past Labor Day and into...

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  • September 13, 2020

538 has a new web page up, 2020 Election Forecast, which shows the current state of vote predictions state by state, and is updated daily. It starts with 24 maps showing the combination of states that give either candidate a win. Right now, there are 5 winning combinations for Trump...

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  • September 12, 2020

news.yahoo.com/… Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump has grown to 10%, according numbers released today in a Yahoo News/YouGov poll and news story. Biden now leads 49% to 39% over Trump in the survey taken September 9-11. In the previous poll for Yahoo News released August 29, Biden’s lead was 47% to...

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  • September 11, 2020

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… Almost everybody has gotten into the act today, bringing out a national presidential poll. Biden leads them all, but some readers might want to see how they compare. National Presidential Polls released 9/2/2020 Pollster 538 rating Biden Trump Margin Seltzer & Co. A+ 49 41 8 Suffolk A 50...

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  • September 2, 2020

Received this e-mail today from former Governor and potentially 2021 gubernatorial candidate, Terry McAuliffe (D. VA), in support of U.S. Senator Mark Warner’s (D. VA) re-election campaign: After watching my friends Joe, Kamala, Barack and Michelle speak last week, I’m more fired up than ever about helping Democrats win up...

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  • August 24, 2020

A poll by Global Strategy Group shows Joe Biden has a 47% to 45% lead in Texas over Trump. Trump won the Lone Star State by 9 points in 2016. http://www.chrystafortexas.com/… Texas presidential polls have been variable with YouGov and Trafalgar Group showing Trump with a lead of six or seven points...

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  • August 20, 2020

http://www.chrystafortexas.com/… A poll by Global Strategy Group shows Joe Biden has a 47% to 45% lead in Texas over Trump. Trump won the Lone Star State by 9 points in 2016. Texas presidential polls have been variable with YouGov and Trafalgar Group showing Trump with a lead of six or seven points...

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  • August 20, 2020

An ABC News/Washington Post Poll shows Joe Biden leading Trump nationally by 10% or better. Biden leads Trump by 54% to 44% among likely voters and leads by 53% to 41% among registered voters. The ABC News Poll is one of only six pollsters rated “A+” by website 538. http://www.langerresearch.com/… Trump’s...

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  • August 17, 2020

The Marist Poll shows Joe Biden has a 53% to 42% national lead over Trump, the largest lead ever for this poll. Marist is rated as an A+ poll by 538. In the Marist late June poll Biden’s lead was 52% to 44%. In February it was 50% to 44%....

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  • August 14, 2020

The Marist Poll shows Joe Biden has a 53% to 42% national lead over Trump, the largest lead ever for this poll. Marist is rated as an A+ poll by 538. In the Marist late June poll Biden’s lead was 52% to 44%. In February it was 50% to 44%....

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  • August 14, 2020

A newly released poll by RMG Research finds that Republican Senator Susan Collins is losing 48% to 41% to Democratic challenger Sara Gideon in the state of Maine. US Term Limits Survey Joe Biden is leading in the Pine Tree state by 50% to 39% over Trump. Further, Trump’s approval is...

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  • August 10, 2020

A Hodas & Associates Poll, just released, shows Joe Biden with big leads in Michigan and Wisconsin and a smaller lead in Pennsylvania despite apparently being designed to damage Biden and Democrats by asking leading questions. politicalwire.com New battleground polls from Hodas & Associates, a Republican polling firm: Michigan: Biden 53%,...

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  • August 4, 2020

A newly released CBS/YouGov poll shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump 48% to 44% in North Carolina and by 46% to 45% in Georgia. cbsnews_20200802_GA_1 Further good news is Cal Cunningham is leading Republican incumbent Thom Tillis in the crucial North Carolina Senate race by 48% to 39%.  Democrat Jon Ossof...

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  • August 2, 2020

There’s been a peculiar disconnect in the polls in the past few months: Most people disapprove of Trump, and most of those strongly disapprove — meaning that they won’t change their minds — and most voters say they will vote for Biden. But more people have also been saying they...

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  • July 28, 2020

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/… The NBC/Marist College Poll, a pollster rated A+ by 538, gives Joe Biden a significant lead of 7% in North Carolina, a state where the polls have been back and forth, usually within the margin of error. Biden has the support of 51% compared to 44% for Trump. Just...

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  • July 27, 2020

CNN story here and it contains links to details of each state’s polls Registered voters, conducted by SSRS, a B+ pollster with a 1.2% Dem lean, according to 538 A few things to note. Margins:  FL 51-46,  AZ 49-45,  MI 52-40 Trumpo underwater in approval in all 23 states, with...

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  • July 26, 2020

poll.qu.edu/… The Quinnipiac University Poll has just released a survey showing Joe Biden leading Trump by 51% to 38% in Florida, one of the largest swing states. The last time Quinnipiac polled Florida was in April when Biden had a 4% lead. Website 538 rates Quinnipiac as a B+ pollster.  aarp-states.brightspotcdn.com/…...

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  • July 23, 2020

poll.qu.edu/… The Quinnipiac University Poll has just released a survey showing Joe Biden leading Trump by 51% to 38% in Florida, one of the largest swing states. The last time Quinnipiac polled Florida was in April when Biden had a 4% lead. Website 538 rates Quinnipiac as a B+ pollster.  aarp-states.brightspotcdn.com/…...

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  • July 23, 2020
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