State Polls: Biden Tied in GA, MI +13%, TX +3%, NC +4%, FL +2%
Gravis Marketing leads off with a 13 point lead for Joe Biden in Michigan. That would be a fantastic number if it is accurate. It would mean Democrats would likely roll up good numbers in Minnesota and Wisconsin as well.
Even Ohio, which was 8% more Republican than Michigan in 2016, would be a likely win. This probably would not be enough to swing Indiana since it voted for Trump by 19%. The Hoosier State is one of the first to start reporting results on election night so any large shifts in the Midwest will hopefully be apparent.
Yesterday, Gravis released its surveys for Pennsylvania (Biden 51%, Trump 44%) and Wisconsin (Biden 54%, Trump 43%) and had numbers in line with the Michigan Poll.
| State | Pollster & Rating | Biden | Trump | Others | Trump margin | Trump 2016 |
| AZ | Trafalgar C- | 47% | 50% | 2% | +3% | +3.5% |
| FL |
YouGov B
Trafalgar C- |
50%
47% |
48%
49% |
–
2% |
-2%
+3% |
+1.3% |
| GA | YouGov B | 49% | 49% | – | 0 | +5.3% |
| MI |
Gravis C
Trafalgar C- |
55%
47% |
42%
49% |
–
2% |
-13%
+3% |
+0.23% |
| NC | YouGov B | 51% | 47% | – | -4% | +3.5% |
| SD | Mason-Dixon B+ | 40% | 51+ | – | +11% | +30% |
| TX | UTT B/C | 48% | 45% | 3% | -3% | +9% |
Any lead in Texas is, of course great news, and the poll by UT at Tyler/Dallas Morning News will be a earthquake if it holds. The not so great news from this poll is that Senator John Cornyn is leading Democrat M.J. Hegar by 42% to 34% with 5% supporting other candidates. How can there by 18% undecided so late in the race when more than 40% have already voted?
The 40% figure is what people told the pollster the day they were asked. As of this morning, Texas turnout is about 80% of the total turnout in 2016. Turnout in 2020 will obviously be much larger.
Kamala Harris campaigns in Texas Friday. Hopefully, more “A List” Democrats will too.
Florida looks determined to stay tight to the end. Republican early voting has picked up substantially this week.
“So Obama [going] there is probably one of the items on the checklist and why the Obama visit makes sense.”
According to TargetSmart’s analysis, Black voters ages 18 to 29 have cast 15.8 percent of the total ballots so far in Florida. That’s half a percentage point down from the same period in 2016. Bonier pointed out that the total vote of that group, along with nearly all other demographics in the state, is up in raw votes and that “it’s not as if the numbers are bad. There’s opportunity.”…
Democrats are turning out more low-propensity voters and newly registered voters than Republicans. But as shares of their party’s votes, the proportions are roughly the same as 2016, according to an analysis by Tyson, whose most recent 1,000-sample Florida poll has Trump with a 2-point lead that’s well within the survey’s 3.1-point margin of error. Many recent public polls have Biden marginally leading…
After Democrats leapt out to a large lead in mail-in votes, Republicans began closing the gap once in-person early voting began in select counties Monday.
