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MI-Sen: Final Round Of Polls Give Sen. Gary Peters (D) 5 To 7 Point Lead Over John James (R)

5 min read

There’s a whole bunch of polling out of Michigan today and over the weekend. First, from Research Co.:

Trump ended a streak of six consecutive presidential elections where the Great Lakes State was won by Democrats, defeating Hillary Clinton by 10,704 votes in 2016 (47.5% to 47.3%)

Biden heads to Election Day with an eight-point advantage over the Republican incumbent in Michigan (53% to 45%). Independent decided voters in Michigan are more likely to support Biden (49%) than Trump (44%).

Incumbent U.S. Senator Gary Peters is ahead of Republican candidate John James by six points (52% to 46%).

Next up, Emerson College’s latest poll:

The final Emerson College poll before the November 3rd election in Michigan finds the former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump 52% to 45%. 3% of voters plan to vote for someone else and only 1% remain undecided. Since the last Emerson poll in Michigan earlier this month, Biden has held at 52% and Trump has gone up three-points, from 42% to 45%.

Biden is leading Trump among independent voters 59% to 32%. He also has a lead among suburban voters, 53% to 43%, and urban voters 56% to 38%. Trump has a lead among rural voters 55% to 44%.

In the US Senate race, incumbent Democratic Senator Gary Peters leads Republican challenger John James 50% to 45%. Two percent are undecided and two percent plan to vote for someone else.

The majority (52%) of Michigan voters disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president while 43% approve of the job he is doing.

Voters were asked how much of a public health threat they think coronavirus is and the majority (52%) think it is a major threat while 29% say it is a moderate threat, 15% think it is a minor threat and 5% think it is no threat at all. The majority (83%) of those voting for Biden think it is a major threat while the majority (48%) of those voting for Trump thinks coronavirus is a moderate threat and 27% think it is a minor threat.

The plurality (34%) of Michigan voters say the economy is the most important issue in deciding their vote for president, followed by COVID-19 with 21%, healthcare with 12% social justice with 11%, climate change with 6%, and the supreme court with 4%.

Among Trump voters, the majority (62%) say the economy is the most important issue.

Biden voters are more split between COVID-19 response (34%), healthcare (19%), social justice (15%), and climate change (9%).

Mitchell Research & Communications:

Former Vice President Joe Biden’s(52%) lead has been cut from ten percent to seven percent over President Donald Trump (45%) in Michigan while US Senator Gary Peters (50%) has seen his lead drop to five percent from nine percent over challenger John James (45%) in the race for the US Senate according to a poll conducted by Mitchell Research Communications of likely voters in the upcoming November 3rdElection.

The poll used a combination of IVR (automated) surveys as well as text message polling to cell phones of those under the age of 45.  The survey of N=817Likely Voters was conducted Thursday, October 29, 2020 has a Margin of Error of + or 3.43% at the 95% level of confidence.

“Joe Biden’s lead has been cut to single digits over President Trump since our SundayTuesday poll.  Biden’s share of the Democratic vote dropped from 98% to 93% while Trump has dropped a point to 90% of the GOP vote. Biden continues to have a wide forty percent lead with independents, 64%26%. By gender, Biden leads with men 52%46% and with women by 53%44.5%.  Trump is gaining, but it might be too little too late if he is going to win Michigan,” Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research said  In terms of issues,

Thirtyone percent said Jobs/Economy is the most important issue in their choice for president and Trump has a huge 79%18% lead with voters who cite the issue.

The coronavirus (26%) is second and Biden leads by a whopping 94%4%.

Law & Order (18%) is next, where Trump has a whopping 91%6% lead.

Healthcare (14%) is fourth and Biden leads by a strong 88%11% margin.

About 50% approve of the job Trump is doing,while Governor Whitmer’s job approval is 58%.Biden seems to be in command in Michigan, but the race is narrowing while John James is now within five percent of Gary Peters, Mitchell concluded.

Scott W.Rasmussen:

In Michigan, Democrat incumbent Senator Gary Peters leads Republican challenger John James in the final weekend before Election Day.  The PoliticalIQ poll has Peters in front of James among Likely Voters, 50% to 41%.  The poll, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, shows 3% voting for some other candidate and 6% not sure.  The poll’s margin of error is 3.5%

Despite the lead in the polls, Republicans are not giving up.  The Senate Leadership Fund, aligned with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, is reportedly dropping $4.6 million dollars into the race in a sign Republicans feel they can still turn things around.  This is James’ second run for Senate.  He lost to incumbent Debbie Stabenow in 2018.  Peters was elected to the Senate in 2014, the only non-incumbent Democrat to win a Senate seat that year.

With a pandemic raging, it’s especially difficult to predict voter turnout.  As a result, all polls are released with three separate turnout models—a baseline projection, a Strong Republican Turnout model, and a Strong Democratic Turnout model.

Even in a Strong Republican Turnout model, Peters maintains a six-point lead over James, 48% to 42%.  Alternatively, if the Democratic Turnout is stronger than baseline, Peters expands his lead to a comfortable 52% to 39%.  In the race for President in Michigan, PoliticalIQ has former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump 51% to 44%.

Here’s some more polling:



— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 1, 2020


— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 1, 2020


— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 1, 2020

Here’s Peters’ biggest lead:

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 2, 2020

Click here to sign up to become a poll worker.

Let’s keep up the momentum to flip Michigan Blue. Click below to donate and get involved with Peters, Biden and their fellow Michigan Democrats campaigns:


Gary Peters

Elizabeth Welch for Supreme Court

Bridget Mary McCormack for Supreme Court

Hillary Scholten

Jon Hoadley

Elissa Slotkin

Haley Stevens

Matt Koleszar

Julia Pulver

Padma Kuppa

Sheryl Kennedy

Christine Morse

Jim Haadsma

Angela Witwer

Chokwe Pitchford

Southpaw Michigan

Michigan Democratic Party

Michigan House Democrats

Michigan Senate Democrats

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