PA-Sen & Gov: Looks Like We Won't Have Sen. Pat Toomey (R) To Kick Around In 2022

Here’s the latest news today out of Pennsylvania:

Sen. Pat Toomey has decided not to run for reelection or for governor of Pennsylvania in 2022, according to two people familiar with his plans, a surprise decision by the Republican with significant implications for the state’s next elections.
He will serve out his current Senate term but won’t run for either of those offices, seemingly ending his career in elected office, at least for now. A formal announcement is expected Monday.

Toomey’s office on Sunday neither confirmed nor denied the senator’s plans. The people familiar with his plans spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

Toomey was already looking into bouncing from the Senate and try to run for Governor in 2022:

One of the worst-kept secrets in Pennsylvania politics is that Sen. Pat Toomey is considering a run for governor in 2022.
So when the Republican rolled out a plan Thursday to reopen Pennsylvania’s economy, and do it more quickly, in many cases, than Gov. Tom Wolf has planned, it renewed speculation about Toomey’s intentions. Four Pennsylvania GOP insiders who spoke to The Inquirer all saw it as an attempt from the senator to show how he would lead as an executive as he weighed in on a critical issue that has raised the profiles of governors across the country.

“It was a pretty clear smoke signal” that Toomey is thinking about a bid for the statehouse, said Charlie Gerow, a Republican strategist based in Harrisburg, though he, like everyone else interviewed, added that he didn’t believe any decision has been made.

And he was trying to give his potential 2022 gubernatorial opponent, Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D. PA), a run for his money by backing his opponent:

Heather Heidelbaugh wants to deny Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro a second term. It’s an expensive and challenging proposition.
But the little-known Pittsburgh lawyer is getting some valuable help from allies of Sen. Pat Toomey — whom political watchers in both parties see as on a likely collision course with Shapiro in the 2022 governor’s race.

While the presidential election consumes voters’ attention, political insiders see the under-the-radar contest for attorney general as a potent prelude to a race that will be very much the center of attention in two years. That subplot played out Monday when a new group started airing digital ads critical of spending by the Attorney General’s Office under Shapiro. Toomey is indirectly helping the group.
Toomey has committed to raising significant amounts of money for the Republican Attorneys General Association, in anticipation that it will spend big to support Heidelbaugh, according to two Republican campaign consultants familiar with Toomey’s thinking. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss Toomey’s plans.

But the truth is that both Wolf and Shapiro are popular in Pennsylvania and Toomey’s devout loyalty to Trump tarnished his image royally. He’s morphed himself from a die hard Tea Party Republican aimed at purging the party of moderates like Arlen Specter for not being fiscally conservative enough to having to brag about working with Democrats on writing a background checks bill that failed to pass. He also needed clips of President Obama praising his work on the background checks bill for a campaign ad in his tight re-election bid against Katie McGinty (D. PA) in 2016. He also refused to say if he endorsed Trump until election day where he outperformed Trump.

It says a lot that Toomey is passing on a run in 2022. If Biden wins the election, 2022 would be a midterm election where Republicans could make gains. But the GOP may have tarnished itself so badly that even midterm elections may not be their path back. We will see. Plus, Pennsylvania has shown that it can buck the GOP trend in midterm elections when a Democrat is in the White House. Wolf proved that in 2014 when he took down Tom Corbett (R. PA). It’s clear Toomey saw the writing on the wall.

Meanwhile, it remains to be seen how the latest news regarding Trump being hospitalized for COVID-19 will shake out in Pennsylvania:

The uncertainty came as both campaigns have been lavishing attention on the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania.
Biden this week took a chartered Amtrak tour through Western Pennsylvania, where he hopes to chip away at Trump’s support among rural and white working-class voters. Biden’s campaign events were socially distanced but included some of the largest crowds he’s seen since the pandemic began. His campaign was set to begin going door to door for the first time since then — something the Trump campaign has been doing for months.

Trump has held several large, mostly outdoor rallies in Pennsylvania over the last couple of months, where hundreds and sometimes thousands of supporters gather in close quarters — many without face masks, which Trump has often shunned. He was in Harrisburg for one rally on Saturday, and had been scheduled to appear in Philadelphia on Sunday before he tested positive.
It remains to be seen how Trump’s testing positive for a virus that has already hobbled him politically will affect the race between him and Biden, who has built a consistent and sizable lead in Pennsylvania and in national polls. And voting is already underway in Pennsylvania, with counties sending voters mail ballots. Philadelphia and other counties are also opening new elections offices where voters can request and submit mail ballots on the spot.

Biden is leading in the polls:

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is maintaining his lead over President Trump in Pennsylvania, according to a CBS News poll released Sunday.

Biden is backed by 51 percent of likely voters in Pennsylvania, a 7-point lead over Trump’s 44 percent, based on the poll, which was conducted after last week’s presidential debate.

Biden’s lead over Trump in the key battleground state ticked up 1 point since a similar poll conducted in August that found Biden leading by a 49 to 43 percent margin.

The New Yorker gave us a look into the Democrats strategy to flip Pennsylvania for Biden a few weeks back:

Over the weekend, I spoke with Brendan McPhillips, the Biden campaign’s state director in Pennsylvania, and Sinceré Harris, a senior adviser to the state campaign. In a Presidential race, where message and policy are set from national headquarters, the operatives who run a state are often veterans of field work (as McPhillips is) and their focus is on the blunt work of turnout, vote counting, and matching volunteers and staffers to particular voters who might need a nudge. Both McPhillips and Harris worked on the Clinton campaign in 2016, and though they were circumspect about their views on its strategies, they emphasized that they had planned a much more intense program of voter outreach in the small cities and towns that had shifted to Trump.

“I’m sure you’ve heard the expression that Democrats need to do what they need to do in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and then Pennsylvania’s done—well, that’s clearly no longer the case,” McPhillips said. One of the campaign’s talking points has been how little Trump’s Presidency has done to improve the material well-being of the voters who swung to him in 2016. McPhillips said that his operation was organizing all sixty-seven counties in the state; the campaign pointed out that it is holding weekly (Zoom) organizing meetings with members of growing communities of color in blue-collar cities like Erie, and in the Lehigh Valley. (Some of those communities are very small.) The hope, McPhillips said, was that Biden’s presence on the ballot and their outreach could persuade some ex-Democrats to “come back home to the Democratic Party.” There were counties in Pennsylvania, McPhillips went on, where shrinking a Clinton loss by twenty-five points to a Biden loss by twenty might make a big difference.

The Democrats might be able to get away with margins like that because of the swing that has taken place in Pennsylvania’s suburbs, particularly in the mostly prosperous belt around Philadelphia—Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery counties. Harris told me that, from her view, the political transformation of these places was more durable than it might at first appear. “Women have been super-energized since Trump’s reëlection—it wasn’t just in 2018,” Harris said. In 2017, Democrats won control of the Delaware County legislature for the first time since the Civil War; in 2018, they flipped four suburban congressional seats; in 2019, they took control of the Bucks County board of commissioners for the first time since 1983. The Philadelphia Inquirer’s wrapup of last year’s election results was headlined “The Blue Wave Crashed Down on Pennsylvania Again.”

And some grassroots groups are already moving fast to flip Pennsylvania back to blue:

For all the poll-driven media excitement about Biden possibly flipping solidly Republican presidential-election states like Georgia and Texas, the campaign is wisely maintaining its focus on the traditionally crucial swing states, with Pennsylvania at the top of the list: Biden’s visit there this week was his fifth since the Democratic convention, with Wisconsin, Florida, and Michigan tied for second place at two. Fortunately, independent groups aren’t waiting for those limited-attendance public events featuring the candidate or deferring to the Democratic National Committee’s efforts; they’re acting on their own to help defeat Trump. On the big money side, the Lincoln Project will soon launch a large advertising and get-out-the-vote push in Philadelphia. Grassroots groups are also ramping up outreach, even if their affection for Biden is only lukewarm. Helen Gym, a Philadelphia community activist who won an at-large seat on the city council in 2016 by running on a proudly populist platform, is deeply involved in the progressive effort. “It doesn’t matter what the Biden campaign is doing—groups are mobilizing on the left, and statewide they’re united as PA Stands Up,” Gym says. “Many of these groups are absolutely ignored by both parties, but we’re moving at the local level, and we’re making hundreds of thousands of phone calls across the state. We have proven to be very effective at winning at the margins. People feel like we have a shot at fixing things under Biden. We have no shot under Trump.”

October 19th is the last day to register to vote in Pennsylvania. U.S. Senator Bob Casey, Jr. (D. PA) has been helping educate voters on all the voting information they need. Received this e-mail yesterday from Casey:

This is the most important election of our lifetimes, and it's critical that you make your voice heard.

The good news is: Voting this year is easy, especially if you make a plan now. We've put together these simple instructions to help Pennsylvania voters:

If you won't be voting in Pennsylvania this year, you can find out more about voting and check your registration at IWillVote.com.

No matter where you live or who you are, we're counting on you to be a voter — now more than ever.

Thanks for doing your part,

Team Casey

Click the links above.

You can also click here to become an Election Protection volunteer.

You can also click here to become a poll worker in Pennsylvania.

Let’s keep up the momentum to flip Pennsylvania Blue. Click below to donate and get involved with Biden and his fellow Pennsylvania Democrats campaigns:

Biden-Harris

Pennsylvania House Democratic Caucus

Pennsylvania Senate Democratic Campaign Committee

Pennsylvania Democratic Party

Pennsylvania United

Josh Shapiro

Nina Ahmad

Joe Torsella

Christina Finello

Susan Wild

Matt Cartwright

Eugene DePasquale

Marlene Katz

Lissa Geiger Shulman

Brittney Rodas

Jonathan Kassa

Nancy Guenst

Anton Andrew

Deb Ciamacca

Claudette Williams

Ann Marie Mitchell

John Kane

Janet Diaz

George Scott

Pam Iovino

Julie Slomski

Conor Lamb

Chrissy Houlahan

Mary Gay Scanlon

Madeleine Dean

Sarah Hammond

Kristy Gnibus