Monmouth University's New Poll Has Joe Biden Beating Trump In Pennsylvania 49-45

Here’s the latest news out of Pennsylvania courtesy of Monmouth University’s latest poll:

Joe Biden holds a 4-point lead over Donald Trump among all registered voters in Pennsylvania according to the Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. Among likely voters, the race is a tight 1 to 3 points, depending on the expected turnout level. This shift from Biden’s larger lead just over six weeks ago is due to declining support for the challenger among men, voters under age 50, and voters in key swing counties. The generic House ballot also remains close, while Democrats are in a generally better position in a trio of contests for statewide offices. The poll also finds that a small, but important, portion of the electorate agrees with the Republican message that the American suburbs are under threat.

Among all registered voters in Pennsylvania, the race for president stands at 49% for Biden and 45% for Trump. Another 2% support Libertarian Jo Jorgensen, less than 1% back the Green Party’s Howie Hawkins, and 4% are undecided. Voter intent includes 43% who say they are certain to vote for Biden (versus 44% who say they are not at all likely to support the Democrat) and 40% who are certain to support Trump (versus 47% who are not at all likely).

The contest tightens when different likely voter models are applied. A model based on a somewhat higher level of turnout than 2016 puts the race at 49% for Biden and 46% for Trump, while one reflecting lower turnout has it at 48% for Biden and 47% for Trump.

NOTE: Monmouth conducted a statewide random sample of 400 Pennsylvania voters from August 28 to 31, 2020.

They also tested down ballot races in Pennsylvania:

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