Back out on my limb . . . I’m getting used to it by now. I’m in my cups reading the tea leaves, or maybe that should be in the tea leaves and reading my cups (or maybe just cupping a corpse — a toyten bankes for us Yiddish types), but. . . . I suspect that Bernie may be thinking about suspending his campaign and calling on all Democrats to consolidate behind Joe Biden.
Couple of reasons I think so:
First, he basically gave up Mississippi. The mayor of Jackson MS has endorsed Biden, and Bernie just can’t seem to pick up the Black vote.
Now, he’s just announced he’s canceled a Kansas City (MO) rally. Between those two states, that’s 109 delegates. The story is, he’s concentrating on Michigan and its 125 delegates. But while Michigan was good for him four years ago, this time around it may not be there for him:
[A]n analysis of the primary results so far suggests that Michigan might not be as favorable to him as it was four years ago. Instead of giving him a chance to reclaim his momentum, Michigan could wind up dealing him a stinging and symbolic defeat.
And Biden may just win California; 3.4 million vote-by-mail ballots are still to be counted.
While The Associated Press declared him the winner of California’s Democratic presidential primary election shortly after the polls closed, at least 3.4 million ballots remain uncounted, according reports from counties to the Secretary of State’s office Friday afternoon.
A sizable chunk of those outstanding votes could go to former Vice President Joe Biden, which has kept CNN and NBC News from calling the race for Sanders. www.sacbee.com/…
Another point to consider: Elizabeth Warren (my first choice) hasn’t said whom she’ll endorse or when. She is closer in policy to Bernie than Biden, but she is also pragmatic and knows how to read the signals. She may well have calculated that Biden is already too far ahead to be caught.
And 538 is now saying Biden has an 88% chance of winning the nomination outright.
Finally, this is 2020 Bernie, not 2016 Bernie. He’s still angry, he’s still absolutist, he’s still stubborn. But there are some differences this time around. First off, while some Bernie Bros will say he was robbed by the establishment if Bernie gets less than 3000 delegates (there’s only 3900+), Bernie cannot in all fairness say he was denied a fair run. What beat him wasn’t the party establishment and the elite; it was Jim Clyburn giving Biden that endorsement in South Carolina, followed by the huge victory Biden got from the Black base there, without which no Democrat can win. The Super Tuesday states saw that. The true establishment candidate was Bloomberg, who managed to get American Samoa (at a cost of something like $18 million per delegate). Bernie got attention, got his program a fair hearing, and if anyone cost him the nomination this time around, it was Warren, who divided the progressive vote.
But the main difference between 2016 and now is Donald Trump. The Great Orange Shitgibbon was just a chimera back then; now he’s the real thing, and Bernie knows, as every other Democrat knows, that getting rid of IMPOTUS, The Ego Who Must Not Be Crossed, the Destroyer of All he Surveys (and while we’re at it, the Defiler of Virgin Goats) is the most important thing we can do. He flat out told Rachel on Wednesday that he would support Biden if Biden wins. No hesitation, no futzing around like he did with Hillary.
All this is why I’m out here waving to you from my limb. Anyone care to come here with me? it’s a great view.