I've recently been getting interested in East Asian geopolitics and stumbled across an article by Robert Kaplan in Foreign Policy, which argues that over the span of decades the demographic and economic axis of the world has shifted from Europe to Asia where population centres are overwhelmingly maritime. With that in mind, the composite cluster of states all with competing territorial claims in the commerce-heavy region make the South China Sea the most likely flashpoint for a global conflict.

Is this opinion widely held or are Chinese attempts to reclaim Taiwan, Sino-Japanese disputes in the East China Sea, or even a conflict with North Korea more likely catalysts for a major war?