I don’t believe this myself, but Nate Silver’s 538 site has moved the KY-6th Congressional Race to “Likely R” because of the latest Sienna College/NYT poll. Barr is up by 3.9 percentage points according to Nate Silver, but keep this in mind: it is based upon only 287 “likely voters.”
287 likely voters???
If I recall Sienna College/NYT has had a very difficult time trying to get anyone to respond to their polls. And this sample size is so small, I just have a hard time believing it. Yes, I shouldn’t automatically dismiss data that conflicts with my biases, but come on Nate!
Yes, in the end, Barr may win. It is a +9 to 10.5 R district. And KY is filled with rednecks. But the KY-6th also has suburbs in it. Why the sudden swing to Barr?
I’d love to hear from anyone in the KY-6th about this. I’m in Louisville, and I have not really heard anything of late of substance with regards to this race lately.