What? KY-6th Congressional Race LIKELY R Because of Poll from Siena College/NYT!

I don’t believe this myself, but Nate Silver’s 538 site has moved the KY-6th Congressional Race to “Likely R” because of the latest Sienna College/NYT poll.  Barr is up by 3.9 percentage points according to Nate Silver, but keep this in mind:  it is based upon only 287 “likely voters.”

287 likely voters???

If I recall Sienna College/NYT has had a very difficult time trying to get anyone to respond to their polls.   And this sample size is so small, I just have a hard time believing it.  Yes, I shouldn’t automatically dismiss data that conflicts with my biases, but come on Nate!

Yes, in the end, Barr may win.  It is a +9 to 10.5 R district.  And KY is filled with rednecks.  But the KY-6th also has suburbs in it.  Why the sudden swing to Barr?  

I’d love to hear from anyone in the KY-6th about this.  I’m in Louisville, and I have not really heard anything of late of substance with regards to this race lately.