TX-Sen: Morning Consult Confirms A Tightening Race Between MJ Hegar (D) & John Cornyn (R)

Here’s the latest news today out of Texas courtesy of Morning Consult’s latest poll:

In Texas, GOP Sen. John Cornyn still leads Democrat MJ Hegar, though the senior senator’s edge in the contest has been almost cut in half since earlier this month.

In Texas, Hegar’s outreach to Black voters, independents and Democrats — fueled by a late surge in cash to her campaign — appears to be yielding results.

The latest survey found she’s narrowed Cornyn’s lead to 5 points, 46 percent to 41 percent, improving her own standing by 4 points while Cornyn’s support has gone virtually unchanged. The share of Black voters backing Hegar’s candidacy increased to 74 percent, up 6 points from earlier this month, while she improved her standing with independents by 5 points, to 40 percent.

Quinnipiac confirmed this yesterday:

In the U.S. Senate race in Texas, incumbent Republican John Cornyn leads Democrat M.J. Hegar among likely voters, 49 – 43 percent. Seven percent are undecided. On September 24th, Cornyn had 50 percent support and Hegar had 42 percent, also with 7 percent undecided.

Likely voters give Hegar a positive 33 – 26 percent favorability rating, while 39 percent say they haven't heard enough about her to form an opinion. In September, voters gave her a positive 29 – 19 percent favorability rating while 50 percent hadn't heard enough about her.

Likely voters give Cornyn a positive 42 – 30 percent favorability rating, while 26 percent say they haven't heard enough about him. In September, they gave him a 39 – 30 percent favorability rating, while 30 percent hadn't heard enough about him.

“While Cornyn maintains a lead, there are still two weeks to go, and you can't count Hegar out,” added Malloy.

So did Date For Progress this week:

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And in the presidential race:

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By the way:

For almost the entire election cycle, U.S. Sen. John Cornyn's massive financial advantage had reassured Republicans across Texas as they dealt with mounting challenges on other parts of the ballot.

Now, with less than two weeks until the election, Cornyn's fortunes have dramatically changed.

His once-staggering cash-on-hand advantage — 16-to-1 earlier this year — is gone, he is confronting a late surge in outside Democratic spending and his challenger, MJ Hegar, has been outspending him on TV for a month.

Polls continue to give Cornyn various single-digit leads, but the 11th-hour action is making for a fluid, uncertain finale.

“He's got some problems, and let me tell you how happy I am that we're at a point where these problems are his because for so long, for 18 years, Texans have had problems that he's overlooked,” Hegar said Wednesday in an interview with The Texas Tribune. “That's why he's in trouble.”

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