Last updated on June 15, 2020
We are verging into serious unhingery with 147 days left.
(Nate) Cohn’s analysis finds that Trump’s slippage is driven largely by his eroding support among white voters, particularly those said to be his base. Cohn averaged together recent high-quality polls and found that Biden’s overall lead over Trump has expanded to 10 points, up from six points earlier this spring.
Specifically, Cohn found that in this average of polls, Trump’s edge over Biden among non-college-educated white voters has slipped by 10 points. He now leads among them by 21 points, versus 31 points earlier this spring, the latter being about the same lead Trump commanded among them in 2016.
As Cohn notes, the shift among this demographic “would be enough to assure Mr. Biden the presidency, given his considerable strength among white college graduates.”[…]
As Trump’s floating of this despicable conspiracy theory shows, it is highly unlikely he can be persuaded to even ask himself whether his magical demagoguery might be failing him. So this derangement will continue.
But, with some signs showing the protests are settling into a calmer, more quietly resolute longer-term posture as grievances appear to be getting heard throughout society, this nonsense will likely make Trump continue to look more unhinged and out of touch. Including among white voters.
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