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Trump Slump in the Suburbs

The Hill is reporting a new poll just out : Trump faces severe suburban slump

Just 32 percent of all suburban voters now say they would definitely vote to re-elect the president, according to a new Grinnell College poll conducted by the Iowa-based pollster Ann Selzer. Another 14 percent said they would consider someone else, and 51 percent said they would definitely vote for a candidate other than Trump.

And this is not just bad news for Trump; it’s awful news, because:

Suburban women especially appear motivated to make their disapproval felt: Eighty-eight percent of suburban women said they would definitely vote in the 2020 presidential election, ten points higher than voters overall.

“This to me is striking not so much in that they are aligning against President Trump, but the degree to which they are aligning against President Trump,” Selzer told The Hill. “That is sort of the pin in the hand grenade. They have the opinion and they’re more likely to vote.”

This is, as one of the current candidates for the Democratic nomination might say, a “BFD.” Why? Because suburban women helped make the difference in 2018:

Among the voters who helped Democrats to regain control of the House of Representatives in 2018 were suburban white women who are college-educated. According to exit polling conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, there was a 20 percent gap between educated white women who voted Democratic versus those who voted Republican.…

And in July of this year, AP reported on this trend:

Many professional, suburban women — a critical voting bloc in the 2020 election — recoil at the abrasive, divisive rhetoric, exposing the president to a potential wave of opposition in key battlegrounds across the country. …

A continuing trend of women voting against Republicans could prove exceedingly difficult for Trump to overcome in his 2020 reelection bid.

“It’s one of the more serious problems that the Republicans face,” said G. Terry Madonna, a pollster and director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College in Pennsylvania.

Now, note that this was before the infamous Ukraine phone call and the impeachment inquiry that it triggered. Even Republican women who supported Trump were upset over his behavior towards Blacks, women, Democrats…. But here is a stat from that Grinnell poll (taken yesterday):

42% of Americans believe that President Trump should be impeached and removed from office, with the highest percentages coming from Democrats (83%), those who don’t profess a religious preference (62%), and suburban women (57%). Meanwhile, 44% say he should not, led by Republicans (87%), white men with no college degree (74%), and rural dwellers (63%). [emphasis added]

(I think the poll’s overall number of 42% wanting removal is lower than other recent polls, which makes the suburban women quotient even more interesting. This is a floor, not a ceiling.)

And the juggernaut starts to pick up speed…

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