It’s a maxim in politics that the most difficult voters to persuade are the ones who “strongly approve” or “strongly disapprove” of a politician. It’s another maxim that an incumbent should have at least 50% of the voters going into an election. The Mangled Mango Misfit just ran up against both maxims:
Fifty percent of all registered voters in our poll “strongly” disapprove of the president.
Fifty percent say there is no chance at all they will vote for him.
Fifty-two percent — in a separate question — say they’re “very uncomfortable” about his candidacy.
Fifty-one percent are backing Joe Biden in the horserace, versus 40 percent for Trump.
This is a bit different from all the polls asking who voters (likely or registered) plan to vote for. Even though Biden is doing very well now, there’s 111 days to go to Nov. 3rd, which is several eternities in politics these days.
“Strong disapproval,” however, is a position that is unlikely to change.
The poll isn’t all good news for Biden:
The other major 2020 storyline from our new NBC News/WSJ poll is Joe Biden’s fav/unfav rating falling in one month.
In June, it was 37 percent positive, 38 percent negative (-1).
Now it’s 34 percent positive, 46 percent negative (-12) – only slightly better than Trump’s 39 percent positive, 54 percent negative rating (-15).
which I find hard to understand, but there it is. Even so:
Remember, however: Many of the young voters who have a negative opinion about Biden are still voting for him.
Per our poll, 10 percent of all voters have a negative opinion of both Trump and Biden. And Biden is leading among these voters, 62 percent to 4 percent.
The Unparalleled Incompetent has brought much of this on himself, of course, by his refusal to do anything constructive about the pandemic, and in fact, to try his hardest to make it worse. And I’m sure the Lincoln Project, Vote Vets and other ad groups are also driving these numbers.
All of which is good. And none of which should lead us to let up for even one second.