Press "Enter" to skip to content

Trump Could Lose the Popular Vote 43-57 and Still Win

<

p class=”is-empty-p”>

Play a hypothetical game: How many popular votes could Trump lose by and still win the election?

I built a spreadsheet using the census figures for the number of registered voters in each state in 2018 and then made these assumptions:

  • 60% of the registered voters will vote in 2020. (Yes, it’s high, but there’s historical interest.)
  • In a state that Trump carries, he gets 51% of the vote.
  • In a state the Democrat carries, Trump gets 35% (his die-hard base).
  • Trump gets exactly 270 votes.

The way I got to 270 was to use the electoral votemap website to pick just enough states to get there:  AL, AK, AR, FL, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, NH, NC, ND, OH, OK, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY.

Using the formulas above, there were a total of 91,832,000 votes cast. (I realize that’s low, but this is just a general experiment.)  Trump gets 39,393,000 (about 43%) and the Democrat gets 52,439,000 (57%). Trump loses the popular vote by 13,046,000 — but he wins the electoral college and we all go to jail.

Now if that isn’t an argument to get rid of the electoral college, I don’t know what is! Until we do that, we need a fifty-state GOTV!


The Politicus is a collaborative political community that facilitates content creation directly on the site. Our goal is to make the political conversation accessible to everyone.

Any donations we receive will go into writer outreach. That could be advertising on Facebook, Twitter, and Reddit or person-to-person outreach on College campuses. Please help if you can:

Subscribe
Notify of
guest

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

0 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x