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# Trump Could Lose the Popular Vote 43-57 and Still Win

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Play a hypothetical game: How many popular votes could Trump lose by and still win the election?

I built a spreadsheet using the census figures for the number of registered voters in each state in 2018 and then made these assumptions:

• 60% of the registered voters will vote in 2020. (Yes, itâ€™s high, but thereâ€™s historical interest.)
• In a state that Trump carries, he gets 51% of the vote.
• In a state the Democrat carries, Trump gets 35% (his die-hard base).
• Trump gets exactly 270 votes.

The way I got to 270 was to use the electoral votemap website to pick just enough states to get there:Â  AL, AK, AR, FL, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, NH, NC, ND, OH, OK, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY.

Using the formulas above, there were a total of 91,832,000 votes cast. (I realize thatâ€™s low, but this is just a general experiment.)Â  Trump gets 39,393,000 (about 43%) and the Democrat gets 52,439,000 (57%). Trump loses the popular vote by 13,046,000 â€” but he wins the electoral college and we all go to jail.

Now if that isnâ€™t an argument to get rid of the electoral college, I donâ€™t know what is! Until we do that, we need a fifty-state GOTV!

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