The A+ rated NYT/Siena College Poll released this morning shows that Joe Biden is leading in Iowa 45% to 42% and is tied in Georgia with 45%. Trump has a 45% to 42% lead in Texas.
This seems to show that Biden is improving on Hillary Clinton’s margins nationally but the improvement is greater in the northern states (improving 12% in Iowa, according to Sienna). Mostly white states such as Minnesota, and Wisconsin and Maine have been polling well for Biden, and he has held onto the African American vote where Clinton did so well. However there is somewhat less improvement for Biden in the South: North Carolina, Georgia and Florida are all ties or close to it.
Pennsylvania is also something of an anomaly as Biden hangs on to a lead of about 4%, only improving by 5% from 2016.
Winning Iowa opens up an additional path for Biden to win the White House since winning MN, WI, MI plus IA and AZ will make him President. In the meantime, other polls show that Ohio too, is tied.
Winning by landslide margins also give Midwestern Democrats a chance to add to their numbers in the Senate. The Siena Poll shows that Greenfield is 2 points ahead of Ernst in Iowa. Democrats are contending for a number of US House seats in the Midwest.
A strong coattail throughout the Midwest could add a bumper crop of state legislative seats as well.
Achieving ties in Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida could result in Cunningham winning Tillis’ Senate seat in North Carolina, and there are a number of close US House seats in NC, GA, FL, and TX.
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