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The model first averages the polls, weighting them by their sample sizes and correcting them for tendencies to overestimate support for one party. It then combines this average with our forecast based on non-polling data, pulling vote shares on each day slightly towards the final election-day projection.
— Philip Bump (@pbump) August 18, 2020
News Analysis: “When the Democratic National Convention convened on Monday, the party assembled with a singular aim: defeating President Trump,” @AsteadWesley and @melbournecoal writehttps://t.co/d14pOqPQQU
— The New York Times (@nytimes) August 18, 2020
“His only preexisting condition was trusting Donald Trump,” Urquiza said. https://t.co/Aymmkg6PcN
— The Hill (@thehill) August 18, 2020