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That prof who freaked us out in 2016 by predicting Trump would win now says Trump will lose

2 min read

Remember back in 2016 when all signs pointed to a Hillary Clinton victory but this one a-hole professor felt like he personally wanted to keep me up at night staring at pictures of seasides and puppies and bunker rental rates? 

He said his “13 keys” system, which had predicted every election since 1984 (he predicted a Gore win in 2000, which, let's face it, was essentially correct), was indicating a Donald Trump victory. And boy how we laughed and laughed. Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha … oh, kill me. And do it quickly.

But, wait! Maybe I can live! And maybe it will be on this planet for a little while longer, because the good professor now says Trump is headed for defeat.


In an interview with CNN, [history professor Allan] Lichtman was definitive in his answer: “The keys predict that Donald Trump will lose the White House this year.”

Did you hear that? Definitive. Defini-fucking-tive. (For what it’s worth, he also correctly predicted that Trump would be impeached.)

Lichtman bases his prediction on a model of “13 keys” that can be answered as either true or false for any given election. The “13 keys” in his system include factors such as the economy, incumbency, social unrest and scandals, as well as the candidates' personal charisma.
“The secret is keeping your eye on the big picture of incumbent strength and performance. And don't pay any attention to the polls, the pundits, the day-to-day ups and downs of the campaign. And that's what the keys gauge. The big picture,” Lichtman explained.

Let’s hope he’s right, because if he isn’t, I’m not sure I can continue in polite society. I mean, I 86’d the “polite” part three and a half years ago, but I’m still hanging by a gossamer thread onto “society.”

When asked if the key model could account for something as cataclysmic as the Covid-19 pandemic, Lichtman remained confident. “Look, retrospectively and prospectively, the keys go all the way back to 1860. They are what we call a robust system. So, I don't fiddle with them. They've lasted through enormous changes in our politics, in our economy, in our democracy. Don't fiddle with the keys,” he explained.

Okay, I won’t. But you better be right this time, too, Lichtman.

“This guy is a natural. Sometimes I laugh so hard I cry.” — Bette Midler on Aldous J. Pennyfarthing, via Twitter. Find out what made dear Bette break up. Dear Fcking Lunatic: 101 Obscenely Rude Letters to Donald Trump and its boffo sequels Dear Prsident A**clown: 101 More Rude Letters to Donald Trump and Dear F*cking Moron: 101 More Letters to Donald Trump by Aldous J. Pennyfarthing are now available for a song! Click those links, yo!

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