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MoveOn: Terrifying New Poll

5 min read

We’re in trouble, and it’s time to wake up.

In our most recent survey, 57.2% of MoveOn members said that they believe that Donald Trump will be defeated in 2020. But new polling tells a very different story that should send chills down our spines.

According to a new poll from The New York Times, the presidential election in 2020, just like in 2016, will most likely be decided by a few hundred thousand votes spread across the critical swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona—as those states will tip the Electoral College to the winner. New data shows a statistical dead heat or even an advantage for Trump in every single one of these states.1

It gets worse. Even as Trump’s national approval rating has cratered, his edge in the states that will likely decide the election has grown since 2016.2 And if you think that it’s still too early to rely on polling data, here’s the harsh truth: In the last three presidential elections, head-to-head polling one year out from Election Day has been just as close to the final result as polls taken the day before the election.3

These polls are a stark reminder that we cannot rely on Trump’s unpopularity, cruelty, and ineptitude to hand us an election victory. 2020 is likely to be the most hard-fought and important election in our lifetimes, and there is not a moment to waste.

MoveOn is ready to meet this moment and fight hard every day until the election, and it is why we are preparing to reveal the details of the largest election campaign in our 21-year history. But we’re behind our budget goal for the month and need to sign up 1,942 new monthly donors to close the gap. Dammand, will you help us fill the gap and fuel the most important year in MoveOn’s existence by chipping in $5 a month?

Yes, I will become a monthly donor to help power MoveOn’s all-hands-on-deck effort to defeat Donald Trump and the GOP in 2020.

No, I’m sorry, I can’t chip in monthly.

MoveOn will announce our full election program in the coming weeks, but here is just some of what we will focus on to defeat Trump and his Republican cronies in 2020:

  • Working to end GOP control of the Senate. Defeating Trump is our top priority, but if Mitch McConnell holds on to his power in the Senate, none of the big, progressive priorities that are so critical for our country and which will also mobilize people to go to the polls will ever get done. That’s why MoveOn is putting an extra focus on critical Senate elections in Arizona, Colorado, Kentucky, Maine, and more—to flip the Senate blue on the same night that we defeat Trump.
  • Inspiring and mobilizing progressive voters to turn out in droves on Election Day. It’s not enough to just register voters, those voters need to get excited about the candidates they are voting for and feel that their votes will matter, which is why MoveOn is working on innovative tactics for volunteers to connect with potential voters directly, including sending hundreds of millions of text messages, to make sure they are energized and ready to vote to defeat Trump and the GOP.
  • Directly raising millions of dollars for inspiring, progressive candidates up and down the ballot. In 2018, MoveOn members came together to donate small amounts that REALLY added up for candidates across the country running bold, progressive campaigns. We’ll dial up that program in 2020 to help fuel the campaigns of progressive champions fighting for an agenda to make America a country where everyone can thrive.

There are a few other aspects to our program that we can’t announce just yet—including a big, new secret weapon that could make all the difference next year. But in order to run on all cylinders for the next year, we need to close our budget gap by signing up 1,942 new monthly donors before the end of November.

Will you chip in $5 a month to make sure we don’t have to make any cuts to our 2020 election program?

Yes, I’ll chip in monthly.

Not able to chip in monthly? Click here because MoveOn still needs your help.

Look, these new poll numbers are scary, there is no way around it. But we always knew that this election would be close.

The good news is that the Blue Wave in 2018 and the recent results in places including Virginia, Kansas, and Kentucky have shown that the Resistance is having a real electoral impact.

We will need to work harder than ever before to make sure that impact is definitive in 2020. Are you with us, Dammand?

Click here to start your $5-a-month donation now.

Not able to chip in monthly? Click here because MoveOn still needs your help.

Thanks for all you do.

–Chris, Kate, Michael, Emily, and the rest of the team


  1. “One Year From Election, Trump Trails Biden but Leads Warren in Battlegrounds,” The New York Times, November 4, 2019
  2. “Trump’s Electoral College Edge Could Grow in 2020, Rewarding Polarizing Campaign,” The New York Times, July 19, 2019

  3. “One Year From Election, Trump Trails Biden but Leads Warren in Battlegrounds,” The New York Times, November 4, 2019 

Want to support our work? The MoveOn community will work every moment, day by day and year by year, to resist Trump’s agenda, contain the damage, defeat hate with love, and begin the process of swinging the nation’s pendulum back toward sanity, decency, and the kind of future that we must never give up on. And to do it we need your ongoing support, now more than ever. Will you stand with us?

Yes, I’ll chip in $5 a month.

No, I’m sorry, I can’t make a monthly donation.

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