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State Poll Summary: Trump Slump Continues

1 min read

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…

The two major national polls released today are Quinnipiac which shows Biden with an 8% lead and  the Fox News Poll which has Biden with a 12% lead. An average of 10% seems about right and mostly agrees with the state polls.

Website 538 shows Trump’s average approval looking at many polls is 41.4% versus disapproval of  55.2% or -13.8%. Last week it was -13.9% and four weeks ago it was 10.1%.

The last national poll to show Trump within a mere 7 points was the Emerson College poll fielded 6/1-6/2. Since then, the average national poll (n=17) is Biden +10.6
 
Now let’s look at state polls.

Screen Shot 2020-06-19 at 12.51.46 AM

Meanwhile for additional insight, Harry Enten looked at some congressional district polls, five Democratic polls and one Republican.

Small exercise…. I took every congressional district poll (all partisan) taken in last 2 months that released a prez ballot. Six in total. Adjusted for historical partisan bias (4 pts for party of candidate/group)… On average Biden’s doing 9 pts better than Clinton. 
 
District      Biden Margin     Partisan Adjustment      Clinton 2016
MI-03              +5                                   +1                              -9
PA-01              +16                                 +12                           +2
SC-01               -10                                   -6                           -13 (GOP poll)
OH-01              +4                                     0                             -7
NE-02               +11                                 +7                             -2
MI-06                +3                                    -1                             -8                 
 

Last week’s article is here: www.dailykos.com/…

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