projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
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(21673)The two major national polls released today are Quinnipiac which shows Biden with an 8% lead and the Fox News Poll which has Biden with a 12% lead. An average of 10% seems about right and mostly agrees with the state polls.
Website 538 shows Trump’s average approval looking at many polls is 41.4% versus disapproval of 55.2% or -13.8%. Last week it was -13.9% and four weeks ago it was 10.1%.
The last national poll to show Trump within a mere 7 points was the Emerson College poll fielded 6/1-6/2. Since then, the average national poll (n=17) is Biden +10.6
Now let’s look at state polls.
Meanwhile for additional insight, Harry Enten looked at some congressional district polls, five Democratic polls and one Republican.
Small exercise…. I took every congressional district poll (all partisan) taken in last 2 months that released a prez ballot. Six in total. Adjusted for historical partisan bias (4 pts for party of candidate/group)… On average Biden’s doing 9 pts better than Clinton.District Biden Margin Partisan Adjustment Clinton 2016MI-03 +5 +1 -9PA-01 +16 +12 +2SC-01 -10 -6 -13 (GOP poll)OH-01 +4 0 -7NE-02 +11 +7 -2MI-06 +3 -1 -8
Last week’s article is here: www.dailykos.com/…
