State Poll Summary: Trump Keeps Digging a Deeper Hole

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…

Most state polling and national averages are showing Joe Biden is maintaining a lead over Trump around eight points better than Hillary Clinton received in 2016, a 10% lead overall.

According to website 538, Trump’s approval rate average is 40.4% with a disapproval of 55.8%, -15.4%. This is the worst for Trump since February 2019.

State Poll Summary, Last Two Weeks
State Date Pollster & Rating Biden Trump Trump Margin Trump 2016
Alaska 7/7 PPP                     B 45% 48% +3% +14.7
Arizona

6/28

6/27



6/29

Change Res.     C-

Gravis                C

Data Orbit.     A/B

51%

45%

47%

44%

49%

45%

-7%

+4%

-2%

+3.5%
Colorado 6/30 PPP                     B 56% 39% -17% -4.9%
Florida

6/23

6/28

7/2

Fox News          A-

Change Res.     C-

Trafalgar           C-

49%

50%

46%

40%

45%

46%

-9%

-5%

0%

+1.3%
Georgia

6/23

6/26

Fox News          A-

PPP                    B

47%

49%

45%

45%

-2%

-4%

+5.3%
Maine 7/2-3 PPP                    B 53% 42% -11% -2.9%
Michigan

6/28

6/27

Change Res.     C-

PPP                    B

48%

50%

43%

44%

-5%

-6%

+0.23%
Missouri 6/22 Garin-Hart-Yang – 48% 46% -2% +18.5%
Montana 6/26 U. Mont.            – 38% 52% +14% +20.4
New York 6/25 Sienna              A- 57% 32% -25% -22.5%
North Carolina

6/23

6/25

6/28

Fox News          A-

ECU                     –

Change Res.      C-

47%

45%

51%

45%

44%

44%

-2%

-1%

-7%

+3.5%
Pennsylvania

6/23

6/28

7/2

Susquehanna   C

Change Res.     C-

Trafalgar           C-

46%

50%

48%

41%

44%

43%

-5%

-6%

-5%

+0.73%
Texas

6/23

6/29

6/25

Fox News          A-

YouGov             B

PPP                    B

45%

44%

48%

44%

48%

46%

-1%

+4%

-2%

+9.0%
Wisconsin

6/25

6/28

Trafalgar          C-

Change Res.    C-

45%

51%

46%

43%

+1%

-8%

+0.77%

Nate Cohn had a few thoughts on congressional district internal polls.

@Nate_Cohn

We've got three Dem polls this morning, all generally apocalyptic for the GOP.  Even in TX-06 (and GOP+4 in the House race) Biden+10 in IN-05 (and D+6 in the House) Biden+2 in MO A heavy grain of salt is in order for partisan polls. And the MO result is too far for me, but…

9:26 AM · Jun 30, 2020·Twitter Web Ap

www.publicpolicypolling.com/…

Alaska, a seldom polled state, is interesting with Trump leading by just 3%, according to PPP which polled July 7-8. Dan Sullivan, the incumbent Republican senator from Alaska, is ahead 39% to 34% over Al Gross. US Congressman Don Young, also a Republican, is polling at 41% two points less than Democrat Alyse Gavin at 43%. Lots of undecideds in this Public Policy Polling survey.

Alaska polling is tough, but Trump+3 is about what I would expect in this national environment, particularly given the state's relatively elastic and independent voting streak
Alaska is one of several states–MT, KS, SC, AK, UT, maybe MO/IN–where it's fairly easy to imagine how the race could be Trump < 5 or so in this environment. I doubt they all are, to be clear, but I'd guess one or two are in that range and AK is one of the better candidates