projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
Most state polling and national averages are showing Joe Biden is maintaining a lead over Trump around eight points better than Hillary Clinton received in 2016, a 10% lead overall.
According to website 538, Trump’s approval rate average is 40.4% with a disapproval of 55.8%, -15.4%. This is the worst for Trump since February 2019.
| State | Date | Pollster & Rating | Biden | Trump | Trump Margin | Trump 2016 |
| Alaska | 7/7 | PPP B | 45% | 48% | +3% | +14.7 |
| Arizona |
6/28 6/27 6/29 |
Change Res. C- Gravis C Data Orbit. A/B |
51% 45% 47% |
44% 49% 45% |
-7% +4% -2% |
+3.5% |
| Colorado | 6/30 | PPP B | 56% | 39% | -17% | -4.9% |
| Florida |
6/23 6/28 7/2 |
Fox News A- Change Res. C- Trafalgar C- |
49% 50% 46% |
40% 45% 46% |
-9% -5% 0% |
+1.3% |
| Georgia |
6/23 6/26 |
Fox News A- PPP B |
47% 49% |
45% 45% |
-2% -4% |
+5.3% |
| Maine | 7/2-3 | PPP B | 53% | 42% | -11% | -2.9% |
| Michigan |
6/28 6/27 |
Change Res. C- PPP B |
48% 50% |
43% 44% |
-5% -6% |
+0.23% |
| Missouri | 6/22 | Garin-Hart-Yang – | 48% | 46% | -2% | +18.5% |
| Montana | 6/26 | U. Mont. – | 38% | 52% | +14% | +20.4 |
| New York | 6/25 | Sienna A- | 57% | 32% | -25% | -22.5% |
| North Carolina |
6/23 6/25 6/28 |
Fox News A- ECU – Change Res. C- |
47% 45% 51% |
45% 44% 44% |
-2% -1% -7% |
+3.5% |
| Pennsylvania |
6/23 6/28 7/2 |
Susquehanna C Change Res. C- Trafalgar C- |
46% 50% 48% |
41% 44% 43% |
-5% -6% -5% |
+0.73% |
| Texas |
6/23 6/29 6/25 |
Fox News A- YouGov B PPP B |
45% 44% 48% |
44% 48% 46% |
-1% +4% -2% |
+9.0% |
| Wisconsin |
6/25 6/28 |
Trafalgar C- Change Res. C- |
45% 51% |
46% 43% |
+1% -8% |
+0.77% |
Nate Cohn had a few thoughts on congressional district internal polls.
@Nate_CohnWe've got three Dem polls this morning, all generally apocalyptic for the GOP. Even in TX-06 (and GOP+4 in the House race) Biden+10 in IN-05 (and D+6 in the House) Biden+2 in MO A heavy grain of salt is in order for partisan polls. And the MO result is too far for me, but…
Alaska, a seldom polled state, is interesting with Trump leading by just 3%, according to PPP which polled July 7-8. Dan Sullivan, the incumbent Republican senator from Alaska, is ahead 39% to 34% over Al Gross. US Congressman Don Young, also a Republican, is polling at 41% two points less than Democrat Alyse Gavin at 43%. Lots of undecideds in this Public Policy Polling survey.
Alaska polling is tough, but Trump+3 is about what I would expect in this national environment, particularly given the state's relatively elastic and independent voting streakAlaska is one of several states–MT, KS, SC, AK, UT, maybe MO/IN–where it's fairly easy to imagine how the race could be Trump < 5 or so in this environment. I doubt they all are, to be clear, but I'd guess one or two are in that range and AK is one of the better candidates
