State Poll Summary: Surveys From 18 States, Biden Has Georgia on the Mind

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The last couple of days has provided a smorgasbord of state polling, including a number of states that are seldom surveyed.

Recent Presidential State Polls
State Date Pollster/Rating Biden Trump Trump

Margin

Trump

2016

AK 7/24 PPP              B 44% 50% +6% +15.2%
AZ 7/26 Morn. Con. B/C 49% 42% -7% +3.57%
CO 7/26

7/24

Morn. Con. B/C



PPP              B

52%

54%

39%

41%

-13%

-13%

-4.91%
FL 7/26 Morn. Con   B/C 49% 46% -3% +1.2%
GA 7/26

7/24

Morn. Con. B/C

PPP              B

47%

46%

46%

45%

-1%

-1%

+5.16%
ME 7/24

7/24

PPP              B

Soc. Sph.     B/C

53%

50%

42%

38%

-11%

-12%

-2.97%
MA 7/20 Mass PG      A/B 55% 23% -32% -27.64%
MI 7/26 Morn. Con.  B/C 52% 42% -10% +0.23%
MN 7/26

7/25

Morn. Con.  B/C

Trafalgar        C-

47%

49%

44%

44%

-3%

-5%

-1.54%
MT 7/24 PPP                 B 45% 50% +5% +20.53%
NJ 7/12 DKC               – 51% 33% -18% -14.10
NC 7/26

7/22

Morn. Con. B/C

Marist           A+

47%

51%

47%

44%

0%

-7%

+3.70
OH 7/26 Morn. Con  B/C 45% 48% +3% +8.15%
PA 7/26 Morn. Con.  B/C 50% 42% -8% +0.73
SC 7/20

7/19

ALG*            B/C

BCRS*            –

45%

43%

50%

50%

+5%

+7%

+14.27
TX 7/26 Morn. Con.  B/C 47% 45% -2% +9.05
VA 7/26 Morn. Con.  B/C 52% 41% -11% -5.36%
WI 7/26 Morn. Con.  B/C 50% 43% -7% +0.77
The Biden Campaign has Georgia on its mind  and adding staff after seeing some fairly favorable polls, but there are other considerations.

  • Georgia only went for Trump by 5.2% in 2016, and has 16 Electoral Votes for Biden to flip.
  • Two close US Senate races will be going on in the state, enough to flip the Senate or pad the margin.
  • Four bordering states are also having Senate races (TN, NC, SC, AL). Broadcasting could spill over a little into Alabama where Democrat Doug Jones is trying to hold on in a tough race. Republican Lindsay Graham in South Carolina is facing a fairly serious challenge and with Democrats spending big in North Carolina and also advertising in Georgia a good portion of the Palmetto State will be covered.

The Campaign

BIDEN'S STATES OF MIND: Faced with public polls showing a tightened race in red-leaning states, former vice president Joe Biden's campaign is debating how big to draw the presidential battlefield.
President Trump's struggles are clear: The most recent public polling shows him losing ground with a wide range of voters across seven states Trump won in 2016. Biden holds a slight lead in North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and Michigan, key states on the path to the White House. The presumptive Democratic nominee also has a clear lead in Pennsylvania, which is considered more favorable to Democrats. And Biden is locked even with Trump in Ohio and Texas, states Trump won by 8 and 9 points, respectively, in 2016.

Next Biden campaign target could be Iowa which also has a key US Senate race to win. Biden did not fare well during the Iowa caucus, but Iowa twice voted for Obama/Biden, Then too, it is next door to critical Wisconsin and Minnesota as well as NE CD-2. Des Moines is not an expensive market.