projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
Four separate pollsters released swing state polls today that might give Republicans serious health issues. The Sienna/New York Times Poll, Fox News Poll, Hodas and Associates, and Redfield and Wilton Strategies all released state polls, some of which are surprising positive for Joe Biden, especially Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
| State | Pollster + Ratings | Biden | Trump | Trump Margin | Trump 2016 | |
| Alabama | F3 Res. B/C | 39% | 53% | +14% | +27.7% | |
| Arizona |
Sienna A+
Redfield – |
48%
43% |
41%
39% |
-7%
-4% |
+3.5% | |
| Florida |
Sienna A+
Redfield — Fox News A- |
47%
45% 49% |
41%
41% 40% |
-6%
-4% -9% |
+1.2% | |
| Georgia | Fox News | 47% | 45% | -2% | +5.5% | |
| Michigan |
Trafalgar C-
Sienna A+ Hodas – Redfield – |
46%
47% 56% 47% |
45%
36% 38% 36% |
-1%
-11% -18% -11% |
+0.23 | |
| North Carolina |
PPP B
Sienna A+ Redfield — Fox News A- |
48%
49% 46% 47% |
46%
40% 40% 45% |
-2%
-9% -6% -2% |
+3.66% | |
| Ohio | Quinnipiac B+ | 46% | 45% | -1% | +8.2% | |
| Pennsylvania |
Sienna A+
Hodas – Redfield – |
50%
54% 49% |
40%
42% 39% |
-10%
-12% -10% |
+0.73% | |
| Texas |
PPP B
Fox News A- |
46%
45% |
48%
44% |
+2%
-1% |
+9.05% | |
| Wisconsin |
Marquette A/B
Hodas – Redfield – |
51%
55% 45% |
42%
39% 36% |
-9%
-16% -9% |
+0.77% |
The Sienna/NYT Upshot Poll released yesterday showed Biden 14 points ahead nationally also asked voters how they thought Trump was treating their state as compared to others. Threatening to cut off funding to Michigan is not playing well for Trump.
Voters in Michigan were much more likely to say that they thought President Trump treated their state unfairly in responding to the coronavirus.
Voters who say Trump treated their state worse than most:
Arizona Florida Michigan North Carolina Pennsylvania Wisconsin
A poll retweeted by Harry Enten shows that when independent voters know someone infected by Covid-19, support for Trump drops sharply, from 42% support to 27%. Republican support drops five percent from 89% to 84% and Democratic support stays at 11%/12%.
