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State Poll Summary: Consensus to Fire Trump Is Building

2 min read

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…

Donald Trump can’t get no respect these days. The coronavirus won’t disappear as he said it would, and CNN won’t retract their national poll saying he’s 14 points behind Biden. To top that off, the Dow Jones Industrial stock index dropped 1861 (-6.9%) points today when Wall Street suddenly discovered we are in a recession.

A falling market is quite worrisome for Republicans since voters were still giving Trump some credit for handling the economy. None of these circumstances even consider the widespread international protests over racism and police overreach.

The state and national polls show that Trump is getting less respect every day from voters. The 538 average of approval polls has Trump at -13.9% his worse showing since February 2019. The average was -11.3 seven days ago and -10.1 three weeks ago. 

www.realclearpolitics.com/…

The RCP average of head to head national polls has Biden leading by 8.1%, but that average moves very slowly. The three national polls out today all have greater margins and are not yet included. (YouGov: Biden +9%, Redfield/Wilton: Biden +13, and Optimus: Biden +11). The real average is probably about 10%.

Now lets look at some state polls which mostly agree with the national polls. A number of Republican states are included. Though Trump is easily winning Kentucky, Tennessee, and Oklahoma, the margins look to be less than 2016 which is important for Democrats running for congress or the legislatures in those states.

State Presidential Polls
State Pollster Biden Trump Trump Margin Trump 2016
Florida Cygnal 47% 44% -3% +1.3%
Georgia TargetSmart 40% 44% +4% +5.3%
Iowa Civiqs

PPP

46%

47%

46%

48%

0

+1%

+9.5%
Kentucky RMG Res. 36% 53% +17% +29.9%
Michigan Kaier Res.

Epic MRA

50%

53%

35%

41%

-15%

-12%

+0.23%
Oklahoma Amber Int. 36% 55% +19% +36.4%
Texas PPP 48% 48% 0 +9.1%
Tennessee SSRS 42% 51% +9% +26.2%

www.dailykos.com/…

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