State Poll Summary: Biden Holds 10% Margin; McConnell Only Leads by 4% in KY
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
The year 2020 has been quite a year, and we are only about half way through. It is 110 days until the election and less than six weeks until the first absentee votes are cast.
Trump is in trouble, but his polling isn’t getting worse as fast as the pandemic is spreading, at least if you average all the polls. The national Quinnipiac University Poll says, “Biden Widens Lead Over Trump To 15 Points”. Then there is the Rasmussen Poll where Trump is down a measly 3%. “Trump Narrows the Gap”, Rasmussen claims.
Sometimes it is hard to know where we are much less where we be on November 3. Still, it is helpful to see what the polls say even if they don’t represent any kind of ultimate reality.
National polling averages by website 538 has shown Biden leading been between 9% and 10% all week. Trump’s popularity is -15.3% the lowest since February 2019.
| State/date | Poll. & Rating | Biden | Trump | Trump lead | Trump ‘16 | |
| AL | 7/9 | AUM – | 41% | 55% | +14% | +27.7% |
| AZ |
7/10
7/12 7/7 |
YouGov B
Change C- OH Pred. B/C |
46%
51% 49% |
46%
45% 44% |
0
-6% -5% |
+3.5% |
| FL |
7/10
7/13 7/12 |
YouGov B
Gravis C Change C- |
48%
53% 50% |
42%
43% 43% |
-6%
-10% -7% |
+1.3% |
| GA | 7/2 | Gravis* C | 45% | 48% | +3% | +5.1% |
| KY | 7/12 | GHY* B/C | 41% | 53% | +12% | +29.8% |
| MI | 7/12 | Change C- | 48% | 42% | -6% | +0.23 |
| MO | 7/1 | YouGov B | 43% | 50% | +7% | +18.5% |
| MT |
7/10
7/13 |
PPP B
Civiqs B/C |
42%
45% |
51%
49% |
+9%
+4% |
+20.4% |
| NE CD-2 | 7/5 | GQR* B | 51% | 44% | -7% | +2.0% |
| NC | 7/12 | Change C- | 47% | 46% | -1% | +3.5% |
| PA | 7/12 | Change C- | 50% | 42% | -8% | +0.7% |
| PA | 7/13 |
Monmouth A+
RV LV hi turnout LV lo turnout |
53% 52% 51% |
40% 42% 44% |
-13% -10% -7% |
+0.7% |
| TX |
7/10
7/7 7/7 |
YouGov B
UTT B/C Gravis* C |
45%
48% 44% |
46%
43% 46% |
+1%
-5% +2% |
+9.0% |
| WI | 7/12 | Change C- | 48% | 42% | -6% | +0.77 |
|
|
Polls with asterisk (*) were taken for a partisan client; G/H/Y and GQR-Democratic, Gravis-GOP (in some polls).
Biden’s polling lead in Pennsylvania gets an interesting partial confirmation in a Republican poll for GOP incumbent congressman Brian Fitzpatrick (PA CD-1) who claims Fitzpatrick has a 53% to 39% lead but for the US House, but that Biden simultaneously has a 51% to 42% lead in this same swing, Bucks County district. Hillary Clinton won the district by 1% in 2016 while losing the state by 0.7%.
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Since January, Americans' party preferences have shifted dramatically in the Democratic Party's direction. What had been a two-percentage-point Republican advantage in U.S. party identification and leaning has become an 11-point Democratic advantage, with more of that movement reflecting a loss in Republican identification and leaning (down eight points) than a gain in Democratic identification and leaning (up five points).
——————–—
McConnell Leads McGrath in Kentucky 45% to 41%
Senator Mitch McConnell leads Amy McGrath by only 4% according to Democratic pollster Garin-Hart-Yang.
McConnell, who has never been popular, always pulls out wins in Kentucky, but Amy McGrath seems to have some momentum coming off her primary win. She is still not well known in parts of the state. Then too, the Bluegrass State just defeated an unpopular Republican governor last fall and Trump’s hold on Kentucky has weakened somewhat.
Between July 7 and 12, Garin-Hart-Yang interviewed a representative sample of 800 likely general election voters in Kentucky. The survey, which was conducted on both landlines and cell phones, was fully representative of an expected November 2020 general election by key factors such as gender, age, geography, race, and partisan affiliation. The survey’s margin of error is +3.5%.
