I have to preface this diary as “nine percent” guy (Warren supporter who has made up his mind already), but I wanted to share this view from The Hill about Elizabeth Warren:

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) appears to be growing her share of support from black voters, who have been slow to warm to her campaign.

A new poll from NBC News and The Wall Street Journal found Warren in second place among black voters with 13 percent support, her best showing in any poll to date. That’s up from 8 percent in the previous survey from July, although the 5-point swing is within the poll’s margin of error.

An Economist–YouGov survey released Wednesday found Warren’s support among black voters at 11 percent, up from 5 percent in July. And the latest Politico–Morning Consult survey found Warren gaining 5 points among black voters.

Kind of hard to grow your support among black Democratic voters when there is one guy who is hogging most of their support now:  Joe Biden.  But Warren is trying to broaden her appeal to a very important voting group.  To be honest, as I am a past his prime white guy, I am not plugged into what the black Democratic community thinks of most of the candidates.  All I know is what I see in polls or watch on TV.

Anyway, it appears that Warren is possibly making some slow and steady movement with black Democratic voters.

“She’s expanding her coalition, and that’s a credit to her strategy and messaging and the bottom-up campaign she’s built to this point,” said Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright.

I am not familiar with Seawright, but a quick Google Search says he worked on the Hillary Clinton campaign.

Now, unfortunately, this article brings in some points that I definitely quibble with.  

“I think Warren and Biden have split the progressive constituency, and any Warren bump has been at the expense of Sanders and second-tier candidates, not Biden, whose base has remained steady,” said pollster Mark Penn.

I am picking nits here, but Warren and Sanders supporters are from different demographics.  Yes, they may be progressive, but each candidate is drawing on different groups within the progressive community, at least of now.  And I’m leery of this narrative because they are quoting from that political genius Mark Penn.

Remember him?  The guy who told Hillary Clinton in 2008 NOT to run on a change platform.  He still got paid millions of dollars for that winning campaign.  Barack Obama must have written him a thank you note.

Anyway, if I want someone who is better at numbers, I will go with Steve Kornacki:

NBC’s Steve Kornacki noted over Twitter that in 2004 former Secretary of State John Kerry, who was also a senator from Massachusetts, was polling at 1 percent among black voters in the NBC-Journal poll before Iowa. Kerry won in Iowa and New Hampshire and then captured 34 percent of the black vote in South Carolina en route to the nomination and 56 percent support from black voters nationally.

“Black voters are pragmatic, and just like anyone else they want to be with a winner,” said one South Carolina Democrat, who said Warren’s crowds at rallies in the Palmetto State are among the most diverse in the field.

I just wanted to share this with the Warren supporters on Daily Kos.

  • September 20, 2019