Last updated on October 21, 2020
The NYT/Siena Poll, rated A+ by 538, shows Joe Biden with a 46% to 42% lead over Trump in North Carolina with minor party candidates taking 4% of the vote.
Meanwhile, Democratic candidate for Senate, Cal Cunningham, leads Republican incumbent Thom Tillis by 41% to 37%, with 7% going to others in the race. For an incumbent to fall below 40% is a very poor performance.
Democratic Governor Roy Cooper has a comfortable lead of 51% to 37% over Republican Dan Forest with 3% saying they will vote for some else.
The poll was taken October 9-13 of 627 likely voters. The margin of error is 4.5%
Website 538 gives Biden a 66% of winning the Tar Heel State currently. Through much of August and September it was a 50/50 race.
Early vote by mail began in North Carolina on September 4, and is being tracked along with the other states by Michael McDonald.
Ballots Returned: 505,946
Return Rate: 38%Mail Ballots Returned and Accepted by Party Registration
Party Returned Ballots Freq. Distribution Requested Ballots Return Rate Democrats 257,766 50.9 624,014 41.3 Republicans 90,445 17.9 255,060 35.5 Minor 1,791 0.4 7,071 25.3 No Party Affiliation 155,944 30.8 446,061 35.0 TOTAL 505,946 100.0 1,332,206 38.0
The Quinnipiac University Poll has just released some great numbers for Biden in Georgia and Ohio.
Perhaps, just as important is the Democratic candidates have leads for the Georgia Senate races.
Georgia:
Biden 51% Trump 44%
Ossoff 51% Perdue 45%
Warnock 41% Collins 22%
Ohio:
Biden 48% Trump 47%
The Quinnipiac surveys were taken October 8-12 of likely voters. The pollster is rated B+ by 538.
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