SC-Sen: New Dem Internal Poll Confirms Jaime Harrison (D) Is Tied With Lindsey Graham (R) 46-46

Some big news today out of South Carolina:

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Click here for the full results.

That’s a completely different result than Morning Call’s poll:

New Morning Consult Political Intelligence tracking conducted Oct. 2-11 found Graham leads his Democratic opponent by 6 percentage points, 48 percent to 42 percent, among 903 likely voters in South Carolina — a notable improvement from his margins over the past few months, when he was either trailing or tied with his well-funded challenger. The latest poll has a margin of error of 3 points.

The polling comes amid a tougher than expected contest for the third-term senator. He was already a national target of liberal outrage for his role in the confirmation fight for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh in 2018, but the left’s ire grew as the Senate Judiciary Committee chairman prepared to take a starring role in the effort to replace Ginsburg with President Donald Trump’s nominee, Judge Amy Coney Barrett.

Democrats have hoped to use the Supreme Court fight to fire up opposition to a number of Republican incumbents. While the issue has been a fundraising boon in the party’s effort to take back the Senate majority, polling shows it also appears to be aiding incumbent Republicans in states viewed as a reach for the Democratic Party.

But I also gave several reasons why Graham knows he’s vulnerable in this diary I also released today. Click here to read.

But as the New York Times reminds us, it’s all about turnout:

Despite his mountains of cash and solid poll numbers, Mr. Harrison needs several things to go his way in the last weeks of the race. He needs to see significant turnout by college-educated women like Ms. Hinske, as well as by nonwhites who now make up about a third of the state’s 3.3 million registered voters. And he needs center-right South Carolinians, tired of Mr. Graham’s fealty to President Trump, to either break for him or stay home on voting day. How those two factors play out will decide not just the South Carolina Senate race — they could decide which party controls the Senate come January.

South Carolina is not an obvious spot for a potential Democratic upset: The party has not won a Senate race there in more than two decades, it currently holds no statewide elective offices and Mr. Trump is expected to win the state easily. But Democrats are feeling a little momentum that they hope Mr. Harrison can build on. Two years ago, the party was encouraged by the victory of Joe Cunningham, a Democrat, in the race for South Carolina’s First Congressional District, which includes much of the Charleston area.

Jim Hodges, the last Democrat to be elected as governor in South Carolina, in 1998, said Mr. Harrison’s success, thus far, was in part attributable to college-educated white women in the suburbs of places like Charleston — part of a larger national trend that Republicans are monitoring with trepidation.

“Democrats are winning in suburban legislative races here, and certainly are more competitive in others,” Mr. Hodges said. The “untold story” about South Carolina’s Democratic primary race in February — a crucial momentum-building win for the Democratic presidential nominee, Joseph R. Biden Jr. — “is not just that Biden had strong African-American support, but that about half of the voters in the primary were non-African-American women,” he added.

The state is also growing more diverse, with an influx of newcomers, both foreign and from other parts of the country, who are helping to balloon the population to about 5.1 million today from 3.9 million in 2000 — voters that Mr. Harrison is hoping will turn out to support him in November.

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Let's keep up the momentum to flip South Carolina Blue. Click below to donate and get involved with Harrison, Biden and their fellow South Carolina Democrats campaigns:

Jaime Harrison

Joe Biden

Joe Cunningham

Adair Ford Boroughs