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FiveThirtyEight predicts a contested convention, especially if there are no surprises on super-Tuesday. The less-mentioned fear is a repeat of 2016 where Biden wins because of superdelegates on the second ballot and disaffected dems take their ball and stay home.

FiveThirtyEight  @FiveThirtyEight Our latest primary forecast: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…

Just a preview posted so the Tuesday results can be seen in context, sans Buttigieg.

Here’s Emerson and RCP for contrast to 538 in California.

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The Russian problem is a feature (not a bug) as the 2020 campaign continues

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— Michael MacKay (@mhmck) March 2, 2020

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— Rolling Stone (@RollingStone) March 2, 2020

Public Enemy announced they are permanently “moving forward” without Flavor Flav, firing one of hip-hop’s most memorable hypemen after more than 35 years. The abrupt dismissal comes just two days after the rapper sent a cease-and-desist letter to Bernie Sanders over Chuck D’s concert at the campaign’s Los Angeles rally Sunday.

“Public Enemy and Public Enemy Radio will be moving forward without Flavor Flav,” the hip-hop legends said in a brief statement Sunday. “We thank him for his years of service and wish him well.”

All that talk about Sanders’s grass-roots ground game in South Carolina did not seem to materialize in actual delegates (especially youth and new voters), so perhaps there are grains of salt or Bernie Sanders isn’t Public Enemy’s Yoko Ono.

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While some of the candidates were struggling to field staff for even a handful of offices, Sanders, by year’s end, had more than 20 offices and over 100 full-time paid staffers dotted around California. Those offices also had thousands of volunteers putting in time to canvass, phone bank, and so on. Over the past year, explains Anna Bahr, the LA-based communications director for the campaign, Sanders’s team had worked to establish a long-term presence not only in the big coastal cities but in small towns and communities in the Central Valley, the Inland Empire, and other poorer, less media-visible parts of the state.

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By year’s end, it was clear that Sanders’s grass roots presence in the state was paying off. Polling showed that he and Biden were now vying for front-runner status. By late January, as Biden’s support began to crater, and as Warren’s candidacy began to sputter after a strong autumn, one poll after another showed Sanders carving out a significant lead. Today, those same polls show Sanders with roughly double the support of Biden. If the Vermont senator maintains that lead over the next week and if his rivals split the vote and mostly fail to reach 15 percent of the statewide vote, he will likely come away with a large majority of California’s more than 400 delegates.

www.thenation.com/…

I’m thinking of attaching something on the COVID19 crisis below the fold in every diary, just because Steve Bannon thinks it’s Trump’s “Churchill moment”.