I have been wondering about state legislative special elections. They are more numerous than House elections, and therefore are likely a better predictor of results.
Relative to the district's performance in 2020 in that same race, excluding races where someone died and a widow(er) is running to replace the deceased member, as well as uncontested races in either November 2020 and the special, which party is leading special elections at the state legislative level? Note I am also excluding states where the normal legislative elections aren't held in presidential years. I am also excluding ones that are won with runoffs, and thus only ones where a runoff is not held.
(For example, New Mexico's 1st and Louisiana's 2nd are the only two federal/House examples. The Democrats overperformed in both races, by 8 and 13 points respectively.
Extra note: I changed my mind and I don't mind weighted results for these specials.
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