Why does Germany's traffic light coalition seem more likely than ever before?

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The Politicus
Oct 01, 2021 02:08 PM 0 Answers
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Even though the parties of the Germany's grand coalition - CDU/CSU and SPD regained majority support in this year's election, according to the commentators, the traffic light coalition has the greatest chance to form because the grand coalition has become unpopular. I wasn't able to find historical data to find when exactly this shift was supposed to happen, however according to the current surveys, the traffic light coalition has the biggest support and only 5 % of Germans see the grand coalition as their most favorable option.

Since the traffic light coalition has never formed to date at the federal level, it begs the question of what has changed. Some of the hypotheses that come to my mind:

  1. The exit of Angela Merkel made the Union less appealing to other parties or their voters.
  2. It's the simple rise in support of the non-grand coalition parties and a loss in support for the Union.
  3. As the non-grand coalition parties somewhat shifted more to the mainstream, they have become more appealing to the grand coalition voters and parties.
  4. People want the coalition to be distinctively left or right, so that they can vote non-extremist opposition in case their preferred party went sideways (see o.m.'s answer).
  5. People want change - even the voters of the grand coalition parties sense a need for a "fresh air" or a need to dissolve power structures once in a while
  6. People want change because the left and the right voters became more polarized and thus, the grand coalition would mean more friction and compromises.
  7. People have disliked the grand coalition more than the representatives for a while, however it took some times for these preferences to reflect in the Bundestag.
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