Why did incumbent House Democrats seem to outperform Biden among Hispanics?

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The Politicus
Dec 16, 2020 07:06 PM 0 Answers
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It has come to my attention that Biden has underperformed Democrats' usual margins with Hispanic voters. He won their votes (as a group, remember: Hispanics are not a monolith and come from different countries & cultures) handily, but not by as wide of a margin as Democrats had in the past since at least 2012.

One interesting trend that I noticed that happened in mostly Hispanic districts was that House Democratic incumbents did better than Biden. I know this is using mostly Texas Hispanics (those voted to the right of the national average among Hispanics/Latinos), but in the California district the same pattern is also evident.

There are six congressional districts that meet my criteria. Pay attention to the fourth column because this is where that information is coming from.

House districts with 70% Hispanic or more that are Dem represented in 2021-23 congress and not uncontested

District Biden Margin House D Margin House-Prez. diff % Hispanic
TX-15 2 3 1 83
TX-16 34 30 -4 82
TX-28 5 19 14 79
TX-29 33 44 11 76
TX-20 29 31 2 71
CA-20 47 53 6 70
Mean 25 30 5 77

I've been wondering what exactly caused it. Trump has been accused of running an anti-immigrant campaign, and yet Florida was one of the three states Trump won out of six states that shifted towards Trump (when accounting for third parties). (Florida is different because of its Cuban population which voted Republican in the past, swung towards Obama, and now swung heavily against Biden.)

I think the most plausible explanation is the pandemic, but I just want an objective confirmation.

In other words, why did it seem that there was a lot of Trump+Dem. ticket splitting among Hispanics, or at least most heavily Hispanic areas?

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