What are the risks associated with Russia collapsing?
European Pravda presents the Russian Federation's collapse as inevitable in the next few years, the invasion of Ukraine acting as a catalyst for it:
In his 2016 essay Will the Russian Federation Make it Past 2031?
Russia, China, and the Inevitable Consequences of Climate Change,
Mesík postulated that Russia’s collapse will become the main theme of
the next decade. However, Russia’s incursion into Ukraine has
dramatically changed the events. Mesík now believes that the demise
will take place in the next 3-5 years.
The same article presents a series of benefits from the neighbors' perspective:
Once it has collapsed, territories like Crimea and Donbas will return
to Ukraine, Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia – to Georgia, Transnistria –
to Moldova. This goes without saying, notes Mesík.
The author also urges that this should be a very important topic on West's agenda in the near future:
The West must start analyzing Russia’s collapse scenarios because of
the risks and opportunities. After all, Europe and the West risk
repeating the mistakes they made following the USSR’s demise.
Some of the benefits were already mentioned, so I will focus on the risks. The main risk I can see is securing of the nuclear weapons.
What are the risks of Russia collapsing besides the nuclear one?
