What are the arguments towards the hypothesis that extended NATO membership discussions make Ukraine a sitting duck? [closed]

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The Politicus
Mar 10, 2022 10:09 PM 0 Answers
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Hypothesis

Let's posit that the early-2022 Russian leadership (possibly only the person of Vladimir Putin) is reactive in principle, not proactive.

We see this already in Chechnya, in Georgia, and in Ukraine in 2014. In each case, separatist aspirations in the respective country triggered a Russian response.

In the case of the Russian-Ukrainian war of 2022, we note that Russia did not invade at any time from 2014 to 2021. Ukraine's talks with, and aspirations to join, both the EU and NATO were ongoing. Hypothesis: the continuing presence of these aspirations, with neither the EU nor NATO accepting or rejecting Ukraine made the country a target for Russian aggression.

Question

What additional arguments can you provide to the hypothesis above?

Argument

By telling Ukraine the conditional (A ⇒ B)

"If you join our alliance, we will defend you from an attack."

NATO was not quite telling Ukraine (¬A ⇒ ¬B)

"Until you have joined our alliance, we will not defend you (from an attack)."

The only logical certainty is (¬B ⇒ ¬A)

"If we do not defend you, then you have not joined our alliance."

This distinction is small consolation for the civilians being bombarded into submission in various Ukrainian towns, or to the President and government of Ukraine who do not know whether the "diplomatic talks" are pointless because President Putin has already decided to eliminate (exile or assassinate) them.

But the statement

"If you join our alliance, we will defend you."

comes exceedingly close to telling Russia

"Ukraine is helpless until joining NATO."

or even, extrapolating

"We will not intervene to defend Ukraine from an attack until Ukraine joins NATO."

The last two statements nearly invite an attack by Russia. "It is now or never" might be what the Russians heard.

What are the arguments towards the hypothesis that extended NATO membership discussions make Ukraine a sitting duck?

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