Is Donald Trump the main reason behind the dramatic increase in Republican primary turnout?

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The Politicus
Mar 05, 2016 02:26 AM 0 Answers
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One of the most interesting features of the 2016 primaries are the turnout numbers for each party. For Super Tuesday, for instance, turnout numbers in each party have changed by around 3 million albeit in opposite directions. It is very likely, that there are many reason explaining the smaller Democrat turnout (Obama running in 2008, two Democratic terms, voter apathy, etc.). However, the increase in the Republican party is even more substantial than the Democrat decrease and it seems to be mostly fueled by Trump supporters, the so called "silent majority". enter image description here

In fact, support for establishment Repulican candidates seems to be roughly the same as in previous elections. The turnout increase seems to be comprised almost entirely by Trump supporters. In this article (http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/data-mine/2016/02/24/a-political-revolution-is-happening-among-republicans), they dissect some of the numbers from the four republican primaries before Super Tuesday. In my opinion, the most noteworthy data mentioned is that Mr. Trump obtained more popular support in this last Nevada primary than all ]the votes cast in the previous two. My question is then, is this an accurate interpretaion of these figures ? Is the turnout increase mostly attributable to the Trump factor? And perharps more speculative, but certainly interesting, who did this people vote for in previous elections?

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  • March 5, 2016