How to understand population sentiment underlying the US 2020 vote count? [closed]
In the 2020 US presidential election, we see a roughly 50/50 split between votes for Trump and votes for Biden, some 60+% of the eligible electorate. Mainstream media rhetoric anticipated a decisive Biden victory, potentially a landslide; the actual outcome appears much narrower, suggesting that perhaps US election results are not a true reflection of voter sentiment.
My question pertains to the sentiment of Americans generally, not just those who cast a vote. I'm curious about how much various factors could or will affect the eventual election outcome, and how they played into the apparent divergence between mainstream media expectation and the outcome actually developing at the ballot box:
- Declining to register for lack of trust in the system, lack of belief that "my vote matters", or other reasons
- Declining to vote because "my vote won't matter" despite having registered
- Declining to vote because "I don't like/trust/accept either of the candidates"
- Voting for the candidate purely due to charisma, regardless of policy position, competence, or other factors about the person/personality
- Voting for a candidate based upon a singular policy point such as immigration, gun control, abortion, economy, etc. as opposed to general alignment with multiple, most, or all of the candidate's declared policies.
- Voting for the candidate due to party affiliation, regardless of the candidate's qualities
- Voting for or against a candidate base on trust or confidence in that candidate's ability to "do the job"
- Strategically voting against the opposing candidate on personality, policy or other reasons ("holding one's nose")
- Backing the anticipated winner
- Other factors