After seeing his discussion in the BBC's 2022-03-11 video Is Russia setting the stage to use chemical weapons in Ukraine? - BBC Newsnight (my transcription with help of closed captions):
The trouble is once you start trying to react emotionally two things happen. Firstly you make bad decisions. And secondly, you might well be playing into the Kremlin's hands. Putin may want us to react in a given way. It is not impossible that he's trying to manipulate us into confrontation. He has for years said that "NATO is attacking Russia" and this may help him walk us into a course of action that justifies it.
During the Cold War, the Russians had a secret program known as "reflexive control" (term in Russian) which was about manipulating people into a course of action that you think you're taking voluntarily, but in fact you're being manipulated into those actions.
So we need to be very careful.
I decided to look further. Wikipedia's article on Seely begins:
Robert William Henry Seely MBE (born 1 June 1966), known as Bob Seely, is a British Conservative Party politician who has served as the Member of Parliament (MP) for the Isle of Wight since June 2017. He was re-elected at the general election in December 2019 with an increased vote and majority.
And the subsection Bob Seely; Russian Hybrid Warfare introduces his peer-reviewed 2018 article A Definition of Contemporary Russian Conflict: How Does the Kremlin Wage War? which is introduced in the Henry Jackson Society's publications page of the same name.
The introduction goes on to say
Seely used the term "Contemporary Russian Conflict" to describe both the overt and covert forms of influence used by the Kremlin. He described modern Russian conflict as "a sophisticated and integrated form of state influence closely linked to political objectives. It has, at its core, the KGB toolkit of 'Active Measures' – political warfare – around which has been wrapped a full spectrum of state tools."
In this co-ordinated approach to warfare, at least 50 tools of state power are used, grouped into seven elements: Political Conflict; Culture and Governance; Economics and Energy; Military Power; Diplomacy and Public Outreach; and Information and Narrative Warfare. At the heart of this is the seventh element: Command and Control.
This model is less a military art so much as a strategic one, in which all the tools of national power are woven together. Armed conflict – whether overt, covert or via proxy forces – is but one part of a full spectrum of tools used in the pursuit of political aims. The role of the Armed Forces in this definition is supporting, not supported – used to bolster the wider political conflict being waged.
Question: How does UK MP Bob Seely's 2018 paper "Definition of Contemporary Russian Conflict" hold up in 2022? How well do events and actions related to Ukraine today fit in to Seely's definition via seven elements of how the Kremlin wages war?