H.R.370 died in the last Congress. The new bill for the 117th Congress is H.R.3078 - Pipeline and LNG Facility Cybersecurity Preparedness Act and was reported June 10, 2021; but has not been otherwise acted on.
Prognosis - 2% chance of being enacted according to Skopos Labs
The fate of any given US bill and the probability that it will pass, fail or flounder is of extreme political interest to all parties, including legislators, lobbyists and to donors to each as well as to the press and the public.
Predictions thereof may (or may not) be useful to bolster or throttle funds, time and effort by all parties involved. Therefore these predictions can become an integral part of the political process and if it is subject to bias, influence or simply prone to error (statistical or otherwise) those are also introduced into the political process.
In the case of the legislation cited above, GovTrack.us says:
and clicking "details" opens a text box that says:
This bill has a 2% chance of being enacted.
The bill's primary sponsor is a Republican. The bill is assigned to the House Energy and Commerce committee.
(Factors are based on correlations which may not indicate causation.)
Predictions are by Skopos Labs.
- How does Skopos Labs (cited by govtrack.us) predict the probability of legislation passing?
- What is their track record? Can anything be said about the reliability of the method?
- is it the first source of legislation success prediction of its kind?
These are so closely related, and sources for answers will overlap to such an extent that I think that in this case it's better to keep them together.
Basic information about the two sites (note: I have no affiliation to either):
Tracking the United States Congress
GovTrack.us began in 2004 as a project to use technology to make the U.S. Congress more open and accessible. Today we’re the leading non-governmental source of legislative information and statistics.
The Skopos team created a machine learning and natural language processing platform.
Brooklyn Investment Group is our wholly-owned SEC Registered Investment Advisor subsidiary.
Skopos is backed by a global investment bank, Thomson Reuters, and venture capital funds. We're headquartered in Brooklyn, New York.