Game Theory says that Russia can attack a NATO country. What will NATO do about this? [closed]

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The Politicus
Mar 13, 2022 08:48 PM 0 Answers
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NATO does not want to help Ukraine because it does not want to risk nuclear war.

But if Russia tomorrow decide to invade a NATO country (say, Poland), surely NATO's dilemma hasn't changed. Attacking Russia to defend Poland would STILL be risking nuclear war, so the "game theory optimal choice" for NATO is still to not engage.

So, from a game-theoretic standpoint, surely Russia can just call NATO's bluff and attack Poland anyways?

So what has or can NATO do to ensure that this doesn't happen? Is Article 5 really it? And so what if Russia just calls their bluff? Or, in other words, what has NATO done to convince the world that it really isn't a bluff? A few words on a piece of paper don't mean much. Just ask Ukraine. COUGHBUDAPESTMEMORANDUMCOUGHCOUGH.

One (weak) argument I've heard is that if NATO lets Russia keep attacking, then at some point they'll attack a major NATO nation directly (France, Germany, USA), and at that point, the nuclear war will break out anyways. But I find this argument very weak. It is FAR more realistic that Russia's attacks are limited to their domain of influence and history, i.e. mainly the ex-soviet countries. So, that would be Ukraine, Poland, the Baltics, and such. Maybe Finland at the very worst due to their long border. So the extrapolation that "Russia attacking Poland means they'll attack anybody" doesn't really hold water.

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